PL: Aston Villa hottest team in the league

Aston Villa now have 13 points in the last five matches, 6.5 points more than in the average simulation.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.5 more than expected
Everton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.7 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.7 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
34	Man City	80.9	+52	< 1%	99.99%	99.94%	99.58%	98.0%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	99.38%
38	Liverpool	78.5	+40	< 1%	99.93%	99.66%	98.4%	94%	25%	< 1%	1.8%	98.0%
39	Arsenal	78.4	+37	< 1%	99.92%	99.60%	98.2%	94%	24%	< 1%	2.4%	97.3%
38	Aston Villa	73.0	+25	< 1%	98.9%	96.2%	89%	71%	4.9%	< 1%	14%	84%
33	Tottenham	66.2	+19	< 1%	89%	76%	50%	21%	< 1%	7%	40%	43%
29	Newcastle	65.0	+27	< 1%	86%	71%	44%	17%	< 1%	9%	43%	37%
28	Man United	59.6	+1	< 1%	50%	27%	11%	3.1%	< 1%	14%	32%	9%
23	Brighton	56.2	+6	< 1%	30%	14%	5.0%	1.1%	< 1%	11%	20%	14%
27	West Ham	55.8	-2	< 1%	25%	11%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	16%	9%
22	Chelsea	52.5	+4	< 1%	12%	4.2%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	11%	< 1%
19	Brentford	49.8	+1	< 1%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	10%	< 1%
21	Fulham	46.9	-8	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	3.8%	< 1%
17	Crystal Palace	45.2	-10	1.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	2.1%	< 1%
19	Wolves	44.2	-15	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%
16	Bournemouth	40.8	-23	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Everton	39.3	-8	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Forest	36.4	-24	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Burnley	28.9	-35	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Luton	28.7	-35	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Sheffield United	25.5	-53	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	79%	35%	6%		22%	6%
Liverpool	73%	28%	4.6%	< 1%	1.2%
Arsenal	36%	4.5%	< 1%		1.6%	< 1%
Aston Villa	36%	2.6%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	4.8%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	24%	1.4%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	1.1%	< 1%			< 1%
Brighton	14%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	16%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	6%	< 1%			< 1%
Fulham	8%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	1.4%
Wolves	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Everton	8%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%
Luton	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	76%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	64%	53%
Sixth team	97.8%	94%	2.0%
Seventh team	84%	61%	2.7%
Eighth team	50%	10%	3.3%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 87
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	57%	22%	21%	Bournemouth
Crystal Palace	40%	24%	36%	Brighton
Aston Villa	77%	14%	9%	Sheffield United
West Ham	44%	24%	32%	Man United
Luton	21%	21%	58%	Newcastle
Forest	50%	23%	27%	Bournemouth
Tottenham	63%	20%	17%	Everton
Fulham	56%	22%	22%	Burnley
Liverpool	50%	23%	27%	Arsenal
Wolves	40%	24%	36%	Chelsea

Most likely combo of teams in CL

23%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
20%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
13%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
4.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.9%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
3.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
2.9%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.4%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

56%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
10%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
9%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
3.7%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
3.4%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
3.3%	Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United
3.1%	Burnley, Forest, Luton
3.1%	Bournemouth, Luton, Sheffield United
1.2%	Burnley, Everton, Luton