EL/ECL: Knockout Stage Probabilities

Liverpool, Leverkusen, Brighton and West Ham favourites in EL, while Aston Villa, Fiorentina, and Lille favourites in Conference League.

Europa League

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	84%	66%	52%	30%
H	Leverkusen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	72%	46%	27%	14%
B	Brighton	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	67%	39%	21%	10%
A	West Ham	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	61%	31%	15%	7%
	Milan					100%	70%	39%	22%	12%	6%
D	Atalanta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	61%	29%	13%	6%
F	Villarreal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	53%	23%	9%	3.9%
G	Roma	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	62%	30%	15%	7%	3.1%
	Benfica					100%	62%	30%	14%	6%	3.0%
	Lens					100%	58%	27%	13%	6%	2.6%
D	Sporting	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	56%	25%	12%	4.9%	2.3%
	Feyenoord					100%	58%	26%	12%	4.8%	2.2%
G	Slavia Praha	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	45%	16%	4.8%	2.1%
A	Freiburg	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	54%	24%	10%	4.0%	1.8%
B	Marseille	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	55%	23%	10%	3.8%	1.7%
F	Rennes	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	51%	20%	8%	2.8%	1.2%
	Galatasaray					100%	48%	17%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
C	Rangers	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	35%	9%	1.9%	< 1%
	Braga					100%	47%	15%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
C	Sparta Praha	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	40%	11%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Young Boys					100%	38%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar					100%	38%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Toulouse	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	35%	9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Karabakh Agdam	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	30%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Europa Conference League

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Aston Villa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	84%	67%	52%	30%
F	Fiorentina	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	72%	46%	27%	13%
A	Lille	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	70%	43%	23%	11%
	Betis					100%	78%	48%	30%	17%	9%
D	Brugge	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	63%	31%	13%	6%
G	Frankfurt	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	67%	38%	21%	11%	5%
H	Fenerbahce	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	58%	27%	11%	5%
	St Gillis					100%	70%	35%	18%	8%	3.7%
	Ajax					100%	65%	30%	14%	6%	2.7%
B	Gent	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	60%	28%	13%	5%	2.5%
B	M Tel Aviv	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	47%	17%	5%	2.3%
G	PAOK	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	47%	17%	5%	2.2%
D	Bodoe Glimt	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	51%	21%	9%	3.1%	1.4%
C	Viktoria Plzen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	39%	11%	2.5%	1.1%
	Sturm Graz					100%	54%	20%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
	Olympiakos					100%	54%	19%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
	Molde					100%	51%	16%	4.9%	1.3%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa					100%	48%	14%	4.3%	1.1%	< 1%
C	Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	39%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Servette					100%	44%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Razgrad	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	35%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Legia	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ferencvaros	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	29%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovan Bratislava	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	22%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	76%	19.53	14.13	24.63
ITA	58%	18.94	14.14	27
GER	46%	18.45	13.93	25.36
ESP	10%	16.78	12.69	22.31
FRA	8%	16.08	11.75	25.25
BEL	< 1%	14.9	12	21.2
CZE	< 1%	14.51	12.25	23.5
TUR	< 1%	12.78	10.75	19.5
NED	< 1%	11.09	8.6	18.8
POR	< 1%	10.62	7.83	18.83