PL:Seven straight wins after Christamas for Man City

In the coming weekend Luton are hosting Sheffield United in a key match for the relegation race.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Luton: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Sheffield United: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Newcastle: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
49	Man City	84.2	+52	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.86%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
51	Liverpool	80.3	+45	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.92%	99.0%	25%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%
49	Arsenal	76.6	+36	< 1%	99.98%	99.89%	99.38%	95.2%	7%	< 1%	1.2%	98.7%
46	Aston Villa	70.2	+24	< 1%	99.13%	97.2%	91%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	86%
44	Tottenham	67.6	+19	< 1%	97.1%	92%	80%	36%	< 1%	2.3%	23%	72%
38	Man United	59.2	-0	< 1%	55%	33%	10%	2.0%	< 1%	14%	43%	8%
36	West Ham	58.4	+3	< 1%	50%	28%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	14%	33%	15%
35	Brighton	57.2	+6	< 1%	42%	23%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	13%	30%	15%
33	Newcastle	56.0	+15	< 1%	36%	18%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	32%	4.0%
32	Wolves	51.8	-2	< 1%	9%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	9%	< 1%
31	Chelsea	51.7	-2	< 1%	10%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	34%	9%	< 1%
27	Bournemouth	47.5	-14	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	3.3%	< 1%
26	Fulham	43.7	-13	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Crystal Palace	42.7	-17	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Brentford	41.9	-11	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Everton	37.5	-8	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Forest	37.4	-20	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Luton	34.7	-24	50%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	28.2	-33	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Sheffield United	22.7	-54	99.22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	90%	54%	13%		36%	13%
Liverpool	87%	45%	11%	1.1%	4.9%
Arsenal	16%	< 1%
Aston Villa	38%	1.5%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	< 1%
Man United	4.6%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	9%	< 1%
Brighton	13%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Newcastle	6%
Wolves	1.8%
Chelsea	32%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.9%
Forest	< 1%
Luton	< 1%

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Luton vs Sheffield United (4%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Luton	59%	45%	38%
Sheffield United	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%
Forest	72%	77%	79%
Everton	76%	80%	82%

 

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man City	81%	12%	7%	Everton
Liverpool	78%	14%	8%	Burnley
Luton	52%	23%	25%	Sheffield United
Tottenham	51%	23%	26%	Brighton
Wolves	49%	23%	28%	Brentford
Fulham	48%	24%	29%	Bournemouth
Forest	34%	24%	41%	Newcastle
West Ham	36%	24%	39%	Arsenal
Aston Villa	57%	22%	22%	Man United
Crystal Palace	43%	24%	33%	Chelsea

Most likely combo of teams in CL

46%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
10%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
5.0%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
4.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
2.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.0%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

43%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
20%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
17%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
4.4%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
3.6%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
2.7%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
2.3%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
2.2%	Burnley, Fulham, Sheffield United
1.1%	Everton, Forest, Sheffield United

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	83%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	77%
League cup winners	100%	72%	69%
Sixth team	99.08%	96.6%	3.4%
Seventh team	90%	71%	3.7%
Eighth team	60%	12%	3.5%