PL: Spurs now favourites to finish fourth (56%)

Tottenham finish top 4 in 56% whereas Aston Villa have slipped down to only 40%. Both are likely to qualify for CL (81% and 71%, respectively) as PL is likely to get a fifth slot (81%). The main challenger is Man United with a 17% probability to reach PL, as detailed below.

Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
West Ham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Bournemouth: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Aston Villa: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
52	Man City	84.9	+52	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.92%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
54	Liverpool	81.5	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.56%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	99.91%
52	Arsenal	78.1	+42	< 1%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.72%	97.8%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.41%
47	Tottenham	69.3	+20	< 1%	99.0%	96.2%	87%	56%	< 1%	1.2%	17%	81%
46	Aston Villa	67.6	+21	< 1%	97.7%	93%	79%	40%	< 1%	1.6%	26%	71%
41	Man United	61.6	+2	< 1%	76%	54%	20%	4.8%	< 1%	12%	54%	17%
36	Newcastle	58.0	+16	< 1%	52%	27%	8%	1.7%	< 1%	15%	42%	7%
36	West Ham	56.5	-4	< 1%	33%	14%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	22%	10%
35	Brighton	55.1	+4	< 1%	26%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	19%	9%
31	Chelsea	51.8	-1	< 1%	10%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	34%	9%	< 1%
32	Wolves	50.0	-5	< 1%	4.0%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	4.8%	< 1%
27	Bournemouth	45.9	-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	2.3%	< 1%
29	Fulham	45.2	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Brentford	43.8	-9	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Crystal Palace	42.5	-18	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Everton	37.2	-8	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Forest	35.8	-22	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Luton	34.0	-25	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	27.7	-33	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Sheffield United	24.8	-51	98.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	89%	51%	12%		33%	12%
Liverpool	89%	50%	14%	1.5%	6%
Arsenal	17%	< 1%
Tottenham	< 1%
Aston Villa	34%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	5%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	7%
West Ham	7%
Brighton	9%	< 1%
Chelsea	31%	< 1%
Wolves	1.8%
Bournemouth	1.7%
Forest	< 1%
Luton	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	81%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	77%
League cup winners	100%	74%	71%
Sixth team	99.17%	96.7%	1.3%
Seventh team	91%	71%	2.4%
Eighth team	60%	9%	3.0%

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Crystal Palace	43%	24%	33%	Chelsea
Brentford	26%	23%	51%	Liverpool
Newcastle	60%	21%	19%	Bournemouth
Forest	34%	24%	42%	West Ham
Tottenham	61%	20%	18%	Wolves
Burnley	21%	21%	57%	Arsenal
Fulham	35%	24%	41%	Aston Villa
Man City	77%	14%	9%	Chelsea
Sheffield United	26%	23%	51%	Brighton
Luton	31%	24%	45%	Man United
Everton	50%	23%	27%	Crystal Palace

Most likely combo of teams in CL

45%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
9%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
8%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
4.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
4.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
1.9%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

43%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
26%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
15%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
3.6%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
3.1%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
2.1%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
1.3%	Everton, Forest, Sheffield United
1.3%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United