CL: Probabilities Last 16

Leipzig are standing out with 78% chance to reach the quarterfinals, one of the highest, yet in terms of winning the whole tournament, they are only ranked 9th (with 3.2%).

In the bottom there is a table showing which two leagues are likely given extra spots in next season's CL.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	95%	73%	55%	38%
Bayern	78%	48%	28%	14%
Inter	61%	37%	21%	10%
Arsenal	69%	39%	20%	9%
Paris SG	59%	29%	13%	5%
Dortmund	58%	26%	11%	4.2%
Barcelona	58%	26%	11%	4.1%
Atletico	39%	19%	9%	3.6%
RB Leipzig	78%	29%	10%	3.2%
Napoli	42%	16%	6%	1.9%
PSV	42%	16%	6%	1.9%
Sociedad	41%	16%	6%	1.9%
Porto	31%	12%	4.2%	1.4%
Lazio	22%	8%	2.3%	< 1%
Young Boys	22%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
FC Kobenhavn	5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%

 Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	81%	19.82	14.25	24.75
ITA	63%	19.2	14.14	27.43
GER	46%	18.54	13.93	26.21
FRA	7%	15.97	11.58	25.08
ESP	1.6%	15.61	12.81	21.94
CZE	1.3%	14.76	12.25	23.25
BEL	< 1%	14.23	11.6	20.8
TUR	< 1%	12.84	10.5	19.75
NED	< 1%	10.9	8.6	18.6
POR	< 1%	11.37	7.83	19

Important factors
GER 62% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 31%
ITA 81% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 51%
GER 69% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 37%
ITA 87% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 55%
GER 59% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 33%
GER 54% if Leverkusen reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 25%
ITA 79% if Inter reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 53%
ITA 71% if Milan reaches the EL round of 16; otherwise 44%
GER 52% if Bayern reaches the CL quarterfinals; otherwise 23%
GER 66% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 38%