CL: Round of 16 Day 1

Updated probabilities after Tuesday night matches. Please note that there was a mistake in previous post in which Leipzig played Young Boys instead of Real Madrid, heavily inflating their chances for obvious reasons and also overestimating Germany's chances to win one of the two extra CL slots. My apologies.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	99.53%	74%	53%	35%
Real Madrid	92%	57%	34%	18%
Bayern	78%	45%	24%	12%
Inter	61%	34%	18%	9%
Arsenal	69%	36%	17%	8%
Paris SG	59%	26%	10%	4.1%
Dortmund	58%	24%	9%	3.3%
Barcelona	58%	24%	9%	3.2%
Atletico	39%	17%	7%	2.8%
PSV	42%	14%	4.4%	1.4%
Napoli	42%	14%	4.4%	1.4%
Sociedad	41%	14%	4.3%	1.4%
Porto	31%	11%	3.3%	1.1%
Lazio	22%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	86%	19.83	14.63	24.63
ITA	67%	19.13	14.29	27
GER	28%	17.75	13.78	25.78
ESP	9%	16.7	13.06	22.06
FRA	7%	15.93	11.58	25.08
CZE	1.6%	14.76	12.25	23.5
BEL	< 1%	14.23	11.6	20.6
TUR	< 1%	12.85	10.5	19.75
POR	< 1%	11.35	7.83	18.83
NED	< 1%	10.88	8.6	19

Important factors
ITA 84% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 55%
GER 43% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 16%
ITA 90% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 60%
GER 50% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 20%
GER 42% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 18%
GER 56% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 23%
ITA 83% if Inter reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 59%
ITA 75% if Milan reaches the EL round of 16; otherwise 49%
GER 47% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL quarterfinals; otherwise 21%
ENG 92% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 73%