CL: Lazio beating Bayer Munchen

With  Italian Lazio winning against German Bayern, it is starting to look like it will be Premier League and Serie A that are given extra CL slots.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	99.53%	74%	54%	35%
Real Madrid	92%	57%	34%	18%
Bayern	61%	35%	19%	9%
Inter	61%	35%	18%	9%
Arsenal	69%	36%	17%	8%
Paris SG	85%	38%	15%	6%
Dortmund	58%	24%	9%	3.3%
Barcelona	58%	24%	9%	3.3%
Atletico	39%	18%	7%	2.8%
PSV	42%	15%	4.5%	1.5%
Napoli	42%	15%	4.5%	1.5%
Porto	31%	11%	3.4%	1.1%
Lazio	39%	12%	3.1%	< 1%
Sociedad	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	87%	19.84	14.63	24.63
ITA	74%	19.4	14.57	27.14
GER	21%	17.43	13.78	24.64
FRA	9%	16.23	11.92	25.75
ESP	7%	16.51	13.06	22.19
CZE	1.5%	14.76	12.25	23.75
BEL	< 1%	14.23	11.6	20.6
TUR	< 1%	12.84	10.5	19.5
NED	< 1%	10.88	8.6	18.4
POR	< 1%	11.35	7.83	18.17

Important factors
ITA 89% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 63%
GER 34% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 11%
ITA 93% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 68%
GER 40% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 14%
GER 36% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 13%
ITA 82% if Milan reaches the EL round of 16; otherwise 56%
GER 46% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 16%
GER 38% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL quarterfinals; otherwise 15%
ENG 93% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 75%
ITA 88% if Inter reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 66%