EL/ECL: Betis in trouble

Betis, a predicted dark horse in Europa Conference League, is in trouble after losing 0-1 versus Zagreb.

Europa League

Team	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Liverpool	100%	82%	64%	49%	34%
Leverkusen	100%	70%	45%	27%	14%
Milan	96.2%	56%	33%	19%	9%
West Ham	100%	61%	32%	16%	7%
Brighton	100%	61%	32%	15%	7%
Atalanta	100%	62%	31%	14%	6%
Benfica	81%	41%	22%	10%	4.6%
Sporting	97.4%	47%	23%	10%	4.2%
Roma	67%	32%	15%	7%	2.7%
Villarreal	100%	47%	18%	6%	2.0%
Marseille	74%	31%	13%	5.0%	1.8%
Slavia Praha	100%	45%	16%	5%	1.7%
Lens	43%	20%	9%	3.7%	1.5%
Freiburg	57%	23%	9%	3.0%	1.0%
Rangers	100%	39%	12%	3.0%	< 1%
Galatasaray	65%	24%	9%	2.9%	< 1%
Feyenoord	33%	13%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
Karabakh Agdam	89%	19%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
Sparta Praha	35%	10%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Shakhtar	26%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
Braga	11%	3.5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Toulouse	19%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Rennes	3.8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Young Boys	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa Conference League

Team	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	100%	85%	65%	49%	33%
Fiorentina	100%	75%	47%	27%	14%
Lille	100%	72%	44%	24%	12%
Brugge	100%	69%	38%	18%	8%
Fenerbahce	100%	66%	35%	16%	7%
Frankfurt	63%	35%	21%	11%	6%
Betis	41%	24%	14%	8%	4.0%
St Gillis	37%	20%	11%	6%	2.8%
M Tel Aviv	100%	54%	21%	7%	2.5%
PAOK	100%	52%	19%	6%	2.1%
Ajax	45%	21%	10%	4.5%	1.9%
Viktoria Plzen	100%	47%	15%	4.3%	1.3%
Bodoe Glimt	55%	21%	8%	3.0%	1.0%
Sturm Graz	97.4%	30%	10%	2.9%	< 1%
Gent	42%	17%	7%	2.5%	< 1%
Maccabi Haifa	58%	20%	8%	2.5%	< 1%
Olympiakos	71%	20%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
Molde	65%	18%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
Razgrad	64%	17%	4.9%	1.2%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	59%	15%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Servette	36%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Legia	35%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Ferencvaros	29%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovan Bratislava	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	86%	19.81	14.75	24.75
ITA	82%	19.83	14.86	27.43
GER	24%	17.65	14.07	24.5
FRA	4.0%	15.75	12.25	24.25
ESP	3.1%	16.04	13.06	21.69
CZE	< 1%	14.47	12.25	23.25
BEL	< 1%	13.86	11.8	20.2
TUR	< 1%	13.16	11	19.5
NED	< 1%	10.6	9	18.2
POR	< 1%	11.25	8.5	18.17

Important factors
GER 37% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 13%
GER 43% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 16%
GER 46% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 18%
GER 39% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 15%
GER 38% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL quarterfinals; otherwise 16%
ENG 92% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 74%
GER 46% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 19%
ITA 94% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 76%
ITA 90% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 72%
GER 53% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL final; otherwise 20%