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The combination of Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton is relegated in 57% of the simulations.
Man United the hottest team in the league and has taken 13 points in the last five matches, compared with 7 points in the simulations. They have become an outside in the CL race, currently with 25% chance, challenging Aston Villa (82%) and Tottenham (69%). The probabilities highly depend on whether Premier League gets a fifth slot as one of the two best performing leagues in the competitions, currently 86%, but depends on the future results of the PL teams.
Hot Teams
Man United: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.0 more than expected
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected
Wolves: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 more than expected
Cold Teams
West Ham: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.6 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected
Fulham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 53 | Man City | 83.4 | +50 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.88% | 48% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.98% |
| 57 | Liverpool | 82.8 | +48 | < 1% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.99% | 99.83% | 39% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.97% |
| 55 | Arsenal | 79.2 | +46 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.87% | 98.9% | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.75% |
| 49 | Aston Villa | 69.1 | +22 | < 1% | 99.0% | 96.3% | 86% | 57% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 82% |
| 47 | Tottenham | 67.2 | +18 | < 1% | 97.4% | 92% | 74% | 35% | < 1% | 2.6% | 27% | 69% |
| 44 | Man United | 63.0 | +3 | < 1% | 84% | 65% | 28% | 8% | < 1% | 10% | 54% | 25% |
| 37 | Newcastle | 56.9 | +15 | < 1% | 41% | 18% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | 16% | 35% | 4.6% |
| 38 | Brighton | 56.3 | +8 | < 1% | 33% | 14% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 24% | 10% |
| 36 | West Ham | 55.0 | -6 | < 1% | 20% | 7% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 13% | 8% |
| 35 | Chelsea | 54.1 | +3 | < 1% | 18% | 6% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 35% | 16% | 1.2% |
| 35 | Wolves | 52.2 | -3 | < 1% | 8% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 8% | < 1% |
| 28 | Bournemouth | 46.1 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.4% | < 1% |
| 29 | Fulham | 44.0 | -12 | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Brentford | 42.8 | -11 | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 24 | Crystal Palace | 41.0 | -20 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 24 | Forest | 37.5 | -20 | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.2% | < 1% |
| 19 | Everton | 37.2 | -8 | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Luton | 32.8 | -25 | 62% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Burnley | 26.9 | -37 | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Sheffield United | 23.8 | -56 | 99.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 83% | 41% | 8% | 24% | 8% | ||
| Liverpool | 91% | 56% | 18% | 2.2% | 9% | ||
| Arsenal | 20% | 1.0% | |||||
| Aston Villa | 33% | < 1% | |||||
| Tottenham | < 1% | ||||||
| Man United | 4.9% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Newcastle | 7% | ||||||
| Brighton | 9% | < 1% | |||||
| West Ham | 7% | ||||||
| Chelsea | 32% | 1.0% | |||||
| Wolves | 1.9% | ||||||
| Bournemouth | 2.0% | ||||||
| Forest | 1.2% | ||||||
| Luton | < 1% |
Simulated points for winner: 84 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Everton | 50% | 23% | 27% | Crystal Palace |
| Man City | 79% | 13% | 8% | Brentford |
| Liverpool | 81% | 12% | 7% | Luton |
| Aston Villa | 68% | 18% | 14% | Forest |
| Man United | 59% | 21% | 20% | Fulham |
| Brighton | 57% | 22% | 21% | Everton |
| Crystal Palace | 58% | 21% | 21% | Burnley |
| Bournemouth | 16% | 19% | 64% | Man City |
| Arsenal | 61% | 20% | 18% | Newcastle |
| Wolves | 66% | 19% | 15% | Sheffield United |
| West Ham | 56% | 22% | 22% | Brentford |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 44% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 13% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 7% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham |
| 4.5% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 4.1% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 3.9% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 2.5% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 1.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City |
| 1.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 57% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 14% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 14% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 5.0% | Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United |
| 1.9% | Everton, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 1.8% | Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United |
| 1.7% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 86% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 75% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 76% | 71% |
| Sixth team | 99.32% | 97.0% | 1.0% |
| Seventh team | 92% | 72% | 2.2% |
| Eighth team | 64% | 9% | 2.6% |
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