CL: Matchday 3 of Round 16

Italian team with another win yesterday while German Dortmund drew in Eindhoven. It's starting to look more and more as Premier League and Serie A will snatch the two extra CL slots (see table at the bottom).

Updated probabilities in Champions League below.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	99.53%	74%	54%	35%
Real Madrid	92%	58%	34%	18%
Bayern	61%	35%	19%	9%
Inter	61%	35%	18%	9%
Arsenal	69%	36%	17%	8%
Paris SG	85%	38%	15%	6%
Dortmund	58%	24%	9%	3.3%
Barcelona	58%	24%	9%	3.3%
Atletico	39%	18%	7%	2.8%
Napoli	42%	15%	4.5%	1.4%
PSV	42%	15%	4.5%	1.4%
Porto	31%	11%	3.4%	1.1%
Lazio	39%	12%	3.1%	< 1%
Sociedad	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	86%	19.81	14.75	24.75
ITA	82%	19.83	14.86	27.43
GER	24%	17.65	14.07	24.5
FRA	4.0%	15.75	12.25	24.25
ESP	3.1%	16.04	13.06	21.69
CZE	< 1%	14.47	12.25	23.25
BEL	< 1%	13.86	11.8	20.2
TUR	< 1%	13.16	11	19.5
NED	< 1%	10.6	9	18.2
POR	< 1%	11.25	8.5	18.17

Important factors
GER 37% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 13%
GER 43% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 16%
GER 46% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 18%
GER 39% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 15%
GER 38% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL quarterfinals; otherwise 16%
ENG 92% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 74%
GER 46% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 19%
ITA 94% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 76%
ITA 90% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 72%
GER 53% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL final; otherwise 20%