CL: Probabilities after R16 Leg 1

Thirteen teams with good (>20%) chances to reach the quarterfinals.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	99.53%	74%	54%	35%
Real Madrid	92%	58%	34%	18%
Inter	69%	39%	21%	10%
Bayern	61%	35%	19%	9%
Paris SG	85%	38%	15%	6%
Arsenal	53%	27%	13%	6%
Dortmund	67%	28%	10%	3.9%
Barcelona	67%	28%	10%	3.8%
Atletico	31%	14%	6%	2.3%
Porto	47%	16%	5%	1.6%
PSV	33%	12%	3.6%	1.2%
Napoli	33%	11%	3.6%	1.1%
Lazio	39%	12%	3.1%	< 1%
Sociedad	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	84%	19.92	15.29	27.29
ENG	82%	19.58	14.75	24.63
GER	26%	17.72	14.21	24.93
FRA	4.2%	15.75	12.25	23.75
ESP	2.5%	15.98	13.19	21.44
CZE	< 1%	14.48	12.25	23.25
BEL	< 1%	13.86	11.8	20
TUR	< 1%	13.16	11	19.75
POR	< 1%	11.53	8.83	18.83
NED	< 1%	10.51	9.2	18

Important factors
GER 40% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 14%
GER 46% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 18%
GER 50% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 19%
GER 42% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 17%
ENG 90% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 69%
GER 41% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL quarterfinals; otherwise 17%
ENG 92% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 73%
GER 49% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 20%
GER 46% if Freiburg reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 20%
GER 32% if Leverkusen reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 11%