EL/ECL: Last 16 decided

Germany is now ahead of England in the country race for extra CL spots, but England has strong contenders in all three competitions and finish top 2 in  86% of the simulations.

Europa League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Liverpool	81%	64%	49%	34%
Leverkusen	70%	45%	27%	14%
Milan	58%	35%	19%	10%
West Ham	61%	32%	15%	7%
Brighton	60%	31%	15%	6%
Atalanta	62%	30%	14%	6%
Benfica	51%	26%	13%	6%
Sporting	48%	23%	10%	4.3%
Roma	47%	23%	10%	4.0%
Marseille	42%	18%	7%	2.4%
Villarreal	47%	17%	6%	2.0%
Freiburg	40%	15%	5%	1.8%
Slavia Praha	43%	16%	4.9%	1.6%
Rangers	38%	11%	3.0%	< 1%
Sparta Praha	30%	9%	2.5%	< 1%
Karabakh Agdam	21%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa Conference League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	85%	66%	50%	34%
Fiorentina	75%	48%	28%	15%
Lille	73%	44%	24%	12%
Brugge	72%	40%	20%	9%
St Gillis	54%	31%	17%	8%
Fenerbahce	67%	36%	17%	7%
Ajax	47%	23%	10%	4.3%
M Tel Aviv	55%	22%	8%	2.7%
PAOK	52%	20%	7%	2.2%
Maccabi Haifa	34%	13%	4.6%	1.5%
Viktoria Plzen	48%	16%	4.4%	1.3%
Sturm Graz	32%	11%	3.1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	28%	9%	2.5%	< 1%
Molde	28%	8%	2.0%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	26%	7%	1.7%	< 1%
Servette	25%	7%	1.5%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	89%	20.02	15.86	26.71
ENG	86%	19.57	14.38	24.25
GER	20%	17.48	14.64	22.64
CZE	2.3%	15.25	13	22.5
FRA	1.6%	15.64	13.25	20.42
ESP	1.1%	15.69	13.31	20.31
BEL	< 1%	14.45	12.4	18.4

Important factors
GER 34% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 9.3%
GER 40% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 13%
GER 35% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 12%
ENG 93% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 73%
GER 26% if Leverkusen reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 6%
GER 43% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 15%
ENG 94% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 78%
GER 28% if Bayern reaches the CL quarterfinals; otherwise 8.7%
GER 45% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 16%
ENG 90% if Liverpool reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 68%