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Liverpool won the season's first title, which means that the Europa Conference League slot likely goes to the eighth team (65%) in the league, probably Newcastle (18%), West Ham (18%) or Brighton (17%).
There is a 54% probability that City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Tottenham will play in CL next season. Of those, Tottenham (74%) is the biggest question mark, challenged by United (14%).
Hot Teams
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.1 more than expected
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Wolves: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 more than expected
Cold Teams
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Everton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 less than expected
Sheffield United: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 59 | Man City | 84.8 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.97% | 52% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 60 | Liverpool | 83.2 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.90% | 35% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.99% |
| 58 | Arsenal | 80.1 | +48 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.97% | 99.42% | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.90% |
| 52 | Aston Villa | 69.9 | +23 | < 1% | 99.59% | 98.4% | 93% | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 89% |
| 47 | Tottenham | 67.2 | +18 | < 1% | 97.9% | 94% | 80% | 32% | < 1% | 2.5% | 23% | 74% |
| 44 | Man United | 61.1 | +1 | < 1% | 74% | 53% | 16% | 2.7% | < 1% | 15% | 55% | 14% |
| 37 | Newcastle | 56.2 | +13 | < 1% | 37% | 18% | 4.0% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 34% | 3.5% |
| 39 | West Ham | 56.1 | -5 | < 1% | 30% | 12% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 20% | 9% |
| 39 | Brighton | 55.4 | +8 | < 1% | 28% | 12% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 22% | 8% |
| 35 | Chelsea | 54.2 | +3 | < 1% | 20% | 8% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 18% | 1.4% |
| 38 | Wolves | 53.0 | -3 | < 1% | 11% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 10% | < 1% |
| 32 | Fulham | 46.1 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 28 | Bournemouth | 45.4 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.3% | < 1% |
| 28 | Crystal Palace | 42.0 | -17 | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Brentford | 41.6 | -11 | 2.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 24 | Forest | 37.0 | -20 | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.2% | < 1% |
| 21 | Everton | 36.7 | -8 | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Luton | 32.5 | -26 | 63% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Burnley | 26.0 | -39 | 96.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Sheffield United | 23.1 | -56 | 99.29% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 84% | 43% | 9% | 26% | 9% | ||
| Liverpool | 100% | 67% | 22% | 2.8% | 8% | ||
| Arsenal | 18% | < 1% | |||||
| Aston Villa | 34% | < 1% | |||||
| Tottenham | < 1% | ||||||
| Man United | 4.9% | ||||||
| Newcastle | 7% | ||||||
| West Ham | 7% | ||||||
| Brighton | 9% | < 1% | |||||
| Chelsea | 3.5% | ||||||
| Wolves | 1.9% | ||||||
| Bournemouth | 2.0% | ||||||
| Forest | 1.2% | ||||||
| Luton | < 1% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Newcastle vs Wolves (6.1%) | Home Win (58%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Wolves | 16% | 23% | 38% |
| Newcastle | 64% | 49% | 39% |
Simulated points for winner: 85 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 37
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Everton | 41% | 24% | 35% | West Ham |
| Newcastle | 58% | 22% | 21% | Wolves |
| Forest | 19% | 21% | 60% | Liverpool |
| Tottenham | 63% | 20% | 17% | Crystal Palace |
| Brentford | 45% | 24% | 31% | Chelsea |
| Fulham | 40% | 24% | 36% | Brighton |
| Luton | 27% | 23% | 50% | Aston Villa |
| Burnley | 42% | 24% | 34% | Bournemouth |
| Man City | 75% | 15% | 10% | Man United |
| Sheffield United | 16% | 19% | 64% | Arsenal |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 54% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 9% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 4.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 4.6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 4.4% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.1% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham |
| 2.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 1.6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham |
| 1.5% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 59% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 16% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 15% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 2.4% | Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United |
| 2.2% | Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United |
| 1.5% | Everton, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 1.4% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 86% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 74% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 100% | 99.99% |
| Sixth team | 100% | 96.9% | 1.3% |
| Seventh team | 97.4% | 71% | 2.2% |
| Eighth team | 74% | 9% | 2.5% |
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