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A couple of interesting matches next weekend.
Title match at Anfield with a 38% swing for Man City (67% vs 29%) and 36% swing for Liverpool.
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Liverpool vs Man City (16.2%) | Home Win (39%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (37%) |
| Liverpool | 53% | 32% | 17% |
| Man City | 29% | 47% | 67% |
Next match is important for the CL race. Aston Villa have more than 95% if they beat Tottenham, compared with 87% if they lose, while Tottenham have a 86% if they win compared with 70% if they lose.
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Aston Villa vs Tottenham (4.2%) | Home Win (50%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (26%) |
| Tottenham | 70% | 77% | 86% |
| Aston Villa | 96.6% | 92% | 87% |
In the next layer of the table, we have Chelsea hosting Newcastle, which is important for deciding the EL and ECL slots, as described in tables below.
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs Newcastle (5.6%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Newcastle | 31% | 40% | 55% |
| Chelsea | 28% | 17% | 12% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs Newcastle (7%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Newcastle | 51% | 61% | 76% |
| Chelsea | 46% | 30% | 23% |
In the bottom we have Luton visiting Crystal Palace. Luton have 22% swing on that match, increasing their chances for a new contract to 40% if they win, compared with 18% if they lose. Crystal Palace almost clinch new contract (>99%), if they win.
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Crystal Palace vs Luton (5.6%) | Home Win (60%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (19%) |
| Luton | 18% | 25% | 40% |
| Crystal Palace | 99.3% | 97.0% | 92% |
| Forest | 86% | 83% | 77% |
Man City win roughly 3 of 6 simulations, Liverpool win 2 of 6 simulations, and Arsenal win 1 of 6 simulations.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 62 | Man City | 85.4 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.97% | 48% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 63 | Liverpool | 84.3 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.93% | 35% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 61 | Arsenal | 81.9 | +55 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.75% | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.96% |
| 55 | Aston Villa | 71.4 | +24 | < 1% | 99.90% | 99.45% | 96.4% | 71% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 93% |
| 50 | Tottenham | 67.8 | +18 | < 1% | 98.7% | 95.5% | 83% | 27% | < 1% | 1.7% | 22% | 76% |
| 44 | Man United | 61.1 | +1 | < 1% | 75% | 53% | 12% | 1.4% | < 1% | 14% | 61% | 11% |
| 40 | Newcastle | 57.0 | +15 | < 1% | 43% | 20% | 3.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 21% | 37% | 3.3% |
| 42 | West Ham | 57.0 | -5 | < 1% | 35% | 15% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | 21% | 26% | 6% |
| 39 | Brighton | 54.3 | +5 | < 1% | 19% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 14% | 7% |
| 36 | Chelsea | 54.2 | +3 | < 1% | 19% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 20% | < 1% |
| 38 | Wolves | 52.8 | -4 | < 1% | 9% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10% | 11% | < 1% |
| 35 | Fulham | 48.4 | -6 | < 1% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | < 1% |
| 31 | Bournemouth | 46.8 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 28 | Crystal Palace | 41.0 | -19 | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Brentford | 40.7 | -12 | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Everton | 39.3 | -10 | 4.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 24 | Forest | 36.4 | -20 | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Luton | 30.9 | -28 | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Burnley | 24.0 | -42 | 98.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Sheffield United | 22.4 | -61 | 99.63% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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