CL: And so they were 14

And so there were 14 teams left - or practically thirteen as Kobenhavn survives their trip to Manchester in about one of 200 times.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	99.48%	73%	52%	34%
Real Madrid	92%	54%	30%	15%
Inter	74%	44%	25%	13%
Bayern	100%	52%	25%	11%
Arsenal	59%	33%	17%	8%
Paris SG	100%	45%	18%	7%
Barcelona	68%	27%	10%	3.6%
Dortmund	65%	24%	8%	2.8%
Atletico	26%	11%	4.1%	1.5%
PSV	35%	12%	3.6%	1.2%
Porto	41%	12%	3.3%	< 1%
Napoli	32%	10%	3.0%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	8%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	87%	19.86	15.71	26.43
ENG	83%	19.52	14.63	24.38
GER	25%	17.75	15.07	23.07
CZE	3.1%	15.36	13	23.5
FRA	1.1%	15.49	13.42	20.42
ESP	< 1%	15.63	13.56	19.94
BEL	< 1%	14.4	12.4	18.4

Important factors
GER 41% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 11%
GER 49% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 15%
GER 32% if Leverkusen reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 7.2%
GER 54% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 19%
ENG 91% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 70%
ENG 93% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 74%
GER 39% if Freiburg reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 17%
ENG 88% if Liverpool reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 63%
ITA 96% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 81%
ITA 93% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 77%