CL: And so they were twelve

Updated probabilities after the matches this week.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	100%	73%	52%	33%
Real Madrid	100%	59%	33%	17%
Inter	74%	44%	25%	13%
Bayern	100%	52%	25%	11%
Arsenal	59%	33%	17%	8%
Paris SG	100%	44%	18%	7%
Barcelona	68%	27%	10%	3.5%
Dortmund	65%	23%	8%	2.7%
Atletico	26%	11%	4.0%	1.5%
PSV	35%	12%	3.5%	1.1%
Porto	41%	12%	3.2%	< 1%
Napoli	32%	10%	2.9%	< 1%

 

The outcome of the Europa League will decide the extra slot very much, particularly Leverkusen, Liverpool, Freiburg, and Milan.

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	86%	19.86	15.71	26.57
ENG	84%	19.54	14.88	24.63
GER	25%	17.78	15.21	22.5
CZE	3.0%	15.36	13	23.5
FRA	1.1%	15.49	13.42	20.42
ESP	< 1%	15.62	13.81	19.44
BEL	< 1%	14.4	12.4	18.4

Important factors
GER 41% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 11%
GER 50% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 15%
GER 33% if Leverkusen reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 7%
GER 55% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 20%
ENG 92% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 70%
ENG 94% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 75%
GER 39% if Freiburg reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 17%
ENG 88% if Liverpool reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 64%
ITA 96% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 81%
ITA 93% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 77%