EL/ECL: Strong night for Italian teams.

Strong night for Italian teams with wins for Milan, Roma and Fiorentina. They increased their average score in the simulations from 19.86 to 20.85 and finish top-2 in 96.6% of the simulations. English teams had a poor night and decreased their average score in the simulations from 19.54 to 19.12, while German teams increased from 17.78 to 18.14. Many points on the table next Thursday when the quarterfinalists in EL and ECL are decided.

Europa League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Liverpool	99.95%	76%	57%	38%
Leverkusen	88%	56%	34%	18%
Milan	90%	51%	27%	12%
Roma	96.5%	45%	19%	7%
Atalanta	64%	32%	15%	6%
Benfica	54%	26%	11%	4.7%
Marseille	97.2%	36%	12%	3.8%
West Ham	48%	21%	8%	3.1%
Sporting	36%	17%	7%	2.9%
Freiburg	52%	17%	4.8%	1.4%
Rangers	46%	14%	3.4%	< 1%
Slavia Praha	10%	3.7%	1.2%	< 1%
Karabakh Agdam	12%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Villarreal	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Sparta Praha	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa Conference League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	82%	65%	50%	35%
Fiorentina	90%	58%	34%	18%
Lille	99.25%	60%	33%	16%
Fenerbahce	96.8%	52%	25%	11%
Brugge	54%	28%	13%	6%
M Tel Aviv	98.0%	39%	14%	4.7%
Viktoria Plzen	67%	24%	8%	2.4%
Ajax	18%	9%	4.4%	2.0%
Dinamo Zagreb	77%	24%	7%	1.9%
Molde	46%	15%	4.2%	1.2%
PAOK	23%	9%	2.8%	< 1%
Servette	33%	9%	2.4%	< 1%
Maccabi Haifa	10%	4.6%	1.9%	< 1%
St Gillis	3.2%	1.9%	1.1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Sturm Graz	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	96.6%	20.85	16.71	26.57
ENG	72%	19.12	15.13	23.75
GER	29%	18.14	15.64	22.64
FRA	2.2%	16.44	14.08	20.58
CZE	< 1%	14.45	13.25	20.25
ESP	< 1%	15.33	13.81	19.31
BEL	< 1%	13.32	12.4	17.6

Important factors
GER 49% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 19%
GER 42% if Freiburg reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 15%
GER 41% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 14%
ENG 85% if West Ham reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 59%
ENG 81% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 55%
ENG 84% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL final; otherwise 60%
GER 55% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 24%
ENG 82% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 59%
GER 49% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 23%
GER 54% if Freiburg reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 24%