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Luton host Forest in a must-win match. Luton only have 12% on new contract if they lose, compared with 42% if they win.
The three top teams have virtually (>99.9%) clinched a place in the CL. The next two teams, Aston Villa and Tottenham, have virtually (>99.9%) clinched a place in the EL. Behind them we have Man United chasing a EL (65%) or even CL (10%).
Hot Teams
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Man United: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected
Cold Teams
Luton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 63 | Man City | 85.0 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.96% | 45% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 64 | Liverpool | 83.8 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.92% | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.98% |
| 64 | Arsenal | 82.6 | +54 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.82% | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.95% |
| 53 | Tottenham | 69.8 | +23 | < 1% | 99.73% | 98.7% | 92% | 51% | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | 80% |
| 55 | Aston Villa | 69.7 | +19 | < 1% | 99.74% | 98.7% | 92% | 46% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 79% |
| 47 | Man United | 62.1 | +2 | < 1% | 82% | 63% | 13% | 2.3% | < 1% | 14% | 65% | 10% |
| 40 | Newcastle | 55.9 | +14 | < 1% | 32% | 11% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 26% | < 1% |
| 43 | West Ham | 55.8 | -6 | < 1% | 24% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 16% | 3.7% |
| 39 | Chelsea | 55.5 | +4 | < 1% | 26% | 10% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 23% | < 1% |
| 42 | Brighton | 55.2 | +5 | < 1% | 23% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 17% | < 1% |
| 41 | Wolves | 54.0 | -4 | < 1% | 12% | 3.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 13% | < 1% |
| 35 | Fulham | 47.4 | -6 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 32 | Bournemouth | 45.7 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Brentford | 40.2 | -11 | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Crystal Palace | 40.0 | -20 | 2.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Everton | 38.5 | -11 | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 24 | Forest | 35.7 | -20 | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Luton | 31.1 | -27 | 72% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 14 | Burnley | 24.3 | -41 | 98.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 14 | Sheffield United | 22.6 | -60 | 99.60% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 85% | 43% | 9% | 26% | 9% | ||
| Liverpool | 100% | 66% | 21% | 2.5% | 6% | ||
| Arsenal | 30% | 1.9% | |||||
| Tottenham | < 1% | ||||||
| Aston Villa | 35% | < 1% | |||||
| Man United | 7% | ||||||
| Newcastle | 3.5% | ||||||
| West Ham | 3.1% | ||||||
| Chelsea | 4.9% | ||||||
| Brighton | < 1% | ||||||
| Wolves | 4.3% |
ts
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Luton vs Forest (13.3%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Luton | 42% | 23% | 12% |
| Forest | 69% | 84% | 94% |
| Bournemouth vs Luton (4.4%) | Home Win (59%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (20%) |
| Luton | 22% | 29% | 44% |
| Forest | 84% | 80% | 73% |
| Everton | 95.8% | 95% | 92% |
| Crystal Palace | 98.0% | 97.2% | 95.4% |
| Bournemouth | 99.98% | 99.83% | 99.4% |
| Burnley | Luton | Forest | Everton | Crystal Palace | Brentford | |||||||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 45 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 1.5% | < 1% | 100% | 6% | 2.5% | 100% | 13% | 4.6% | 100% | 15% | 5% | 100% |
| 44 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 100% | 10% | 4.1% | 100% | 19% | 5% | 100% | 21% | 6% | 100% |
| 43 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 100% | 15% | 4.9% | 100% | 26% | 7% | 100% | 28% | 8% | 100% |
| 42 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 8% | 2.7% | 100% | 22% | 7% | 100% | 35% | 9% | 100% | 37% | 9% | 100% |
| 41 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99.9% | 12% | 4.1% | 100% | 30% | 9% | 100% | 44% | 9% | 100% | 46% | 9% | >99.99% |
| 40 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 1.8% | < 1% | 99.7% | 17% | 6% | 99.98% | 39% | 9% | >99.99% | 54% | 10% | >99.99% | 56% | 10% | >99.99% |
| 39 | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 98.8% | 24% | 6% | 99.9% | 49% | 10% | 99.97% | 64% | 10% | 99.90% | 66% | 9% | 99.96% |
| 38 | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | 5% | 2.1% | 97% | 32% | 8% | 99.5% | 60% | 10% | 99.8% | 73% | 9% | 99.7% | 74% | 8% | 99.8% |
| 37 | < 1% | < 1% | 91% | 9% | 3.4% | 91% | 41% | 9% | 98.3% | 69% | 9% | 99.3% | 81% | 8% | 98.9% | 81% | 8% | 99.3% |
| 36 | < 1% | < 1% | 77% | 13% | 4.2% | 82% | 51% | 9% | 95.5% | 78% | 9% | 97.7% | 88% | 7% | 96.7% | 87% | 6% | 97.7% |
| 35 | < 1% | < 1% | 59% | 19% | 6% | 68% | 61% | 10% | 90% | 85% | 7% | 94% | 92% | 4.7% | 93% | 92% | 4.5% | 94% |
| 34 | 1.1% | < 1% | 42% | 26% | 8% | 53% | 70% | 9% | 82% | 90% | 5% | 88% | 95.8% | 3.5% | 86% | 95.2% | 3.3% | 88% |
| 33 | 2.1% | 1.0% | 25% | 35% | 8% | 37% | 78% | 8% | 71% | 94% | 4.0% | 77% | 98.0% | 2.2% | 75% | 97.4% | 2.2% | 78% |
| 32 | 3.5% | 1.4% | 15% | 45% | 10% | 24% | 85% | 7% | 59% | 96.8% | 2.7% | 64% | 99.11% | 1.1% | 62% | 98.6% | 1.3% | 65% |
| 31 | 6% | 2.3% | 6% | 55% | 11% | 14% | 91% | 5% | 45% | 98.3% | 1.5% | 48% | 99.70% | < 1% | 49% | 99.38% | < 1% | 50% |
| 30 | 9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 65% | 10% | 7% | 94% | 3.7% | 32% | 99.23% | < 1% | 33% | 99.95% | < 1% | 35% | 99.76% | < 1% | 34% |
| 29 | 14% | 4.5% | < 1% | 75% | 9% | 3.2% | 97.1% | 2.6% | 20% | 99.70% | < 1% | 19% | 100% | < 1% | 23% | 99.91% | < 1% | 22% |
| 28 | 20% | 6% | < 1% | 83% | 8% | 1.2% | 98.7% | 1.6% | 11% | 99.89% | < 1% | 11% | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.98% | < 1% | 12% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 72% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 80% |
| League cup winners | 100% | >99.99% | 99.98% |
| Sixth team | 100% | 95.7% | < 1% |
| Seventh team | 96.6% | 64% | < 1% |
| Eighth team | 66% | 4.2% | < 1% |
Simulated points for winner: 85 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 36
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Bournemouth | 59% | 21% | 20% | Luton |
| Luton | 43% | 24% | 33% | Forest |
| Burnley | 37% | 24% | 38% | Brentford |
| Fulham | 37% | 24% | 39% | Tottenham |
| West Ham | 41% | 24% | 35% | Aston Villa |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 57% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 14% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 13% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 4.3% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham |
| 4.3% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 2.5% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 71% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 18% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 4.9% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 2.6% | Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United |
| 2.4% | Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United |
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