CL: And so they were ten

Ten teams left in CL and the updated probabilities are displayed below. In the race for CL bonus slot, England increased their chances to 79% though Arsenal's win and qualifying for the quarterfinals. They are now down to six countries that have a theoretical chance, but the Spanish, Czech and French chances are very slim and probably requiring winning everything left to win.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	100%	71%	50%	32%
Real Madrid	100%	58%	31%	16%
Arsenal	100%	55%	28%	14%
Inter	74%	43%	24%	12%
Bayern	100%	50%	23%	10%
Paris SG	100%	42%	17%	7%
Barcelona	100%	38%	13%	4.9%
Dortmund	65%	22%	7%	2.5%
Atletico	26%	10%	3.7%	1.3%
PSV	35%	11%	3.2%	1.0%

 

 

Important factors
GER 43% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 14%
GER 35% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 10%
GER 35% if Freiburg reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 12%
ENG 91% if West Ham reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 69%
ENG 87% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 64%
GER 48% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 19%
ENG 89% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL final; otherwise 69%
ENG 88% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 67%
GER 44% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 18%
GER 48% if Freiburg reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 19%

Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	95.1%	20.59	16.71	25.57
ENG	79%	19.43	15.63	23.88
GER	24%	18.11	15.64	22.64
FRA	1.6%	16.41	14.08	20.58
CZE	< 1%	14.45	13.25	20.5
ESP	< 1%	15.53	14.19	19.31