CL: Predictions of quarterfinal prior to the draw.

 It looks like avry tight group of final eight teams. No team reaches the semifinals in less than a third of the simulations. Man City are standing out as favorites, but the other seven teams are predicted between 36% and 60%

Champions League

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	73%	52%	34%
Real Madrid	60%	34%	17%
Arsenal	56%	30%	15%
Bayern	52%	25%	11%
Paris SG	44%	18%	7%
Barcelona	40%	15%	5%
Atletico	39%	14%	5%
Dortmund	36%	12%	4.3%

 

In the race for extra CL spot, nothing much happened. Germany increased their chances slightly and Italy decreased their chances slightly.

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	87%	19.83	16.71	23.71
ENG	77%	19.48	15.75	23.5
GER	34%	18.44	16.07	22.64
FRA	1.6%	16.44	14.08	20.58
CZE	< 1%	14.45	13.25	20.25
ESP	< 1%	16.08	14.56	19.31

Important factors
GER 59% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 22%
GER 49% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 16%
GER 47% if Freiburg reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 20%
GER 64% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 28%
ENG 86% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 60%
ENG 88% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL final; otherwise 66%
ENG 89% if West Ham reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 66%
ENG 87% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 64%
ENG 83% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 57%
GER 55% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 27%