EL/ECL: Probabilities of last eight

Probabilities of last eight in EL and ECL.

Europa League

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Liverpool	74%	54%	36%
Leverkusen	62%	36%	19%
Milan	54%	27%	13%
Atalanta	47%	20%	9%
Benfica	46%	20%	8%
Roma	43%	17%	7%
West Ham	41%	15%	6%
Marseille	33%	10%	3.3%

Europa Conference League

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	78%	59%	41%
Fiorentina	62%	35%	17%
Lille	58%	30%	14%
Fenerbahce	51%	23%	10%
Brugge	50%	22%	9%
Olympiakos	35%	10%	3.2%
PAOK	34%	10%	3.2%
Viktoria Plzen	33%	10%	2.9%

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	95%	20.16	17.86	23.43
ENG	92%	20.09	16.63	23.38
GER	13%	18.2	16.5	21.36
FRA	< 1%	16.16	14.42	20.08
ESP	< 1%	16.17	14.81	18.19

Important factors
GER 27% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 5%
GER 20% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 2.1%
GER 29% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 7.8%
GER 32% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 8.6%
GER 21% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 5.1%
ENG 97% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 85%
GER 36% if Bayern wins the Champions League; otherwise 10%
ENG 97% if Man City reaches the CL final; otherwise 86%
GER 23% if Dortmund reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 7.8%
ENG 95% if Man City reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 82%