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Champions League
The chances were reduced for the four favourites, Man City, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Bayern. In particular for Real Madrid their chances to reach the semis jumped down from 60% to 36%. Paris are favourites on the other half with a 29% probability to reach the final.
| Team | Semifinal | Final | Champion |
| Man City | 64% (-11) | 42% (-10) | 30% (-4) |
| Arsenal | 53% (-3) | 21% (-7) | 13% (-2) |
| Real Madrid | 36% (-24) | 20% (-14) | 12% (-5) |
| Paris SG | 53% (+9) | 29% (+11) | 11% (+4) |
| Bayern | 47% (-5) | 17% (-8) | 10% (-1) |
| Atletico | 52% (+13) | 25% (+11) | 8% (+3) |
| Barcelona | 47% (+7) | 24% (+9) | 8% (+3) |
| Dortmund | 48% (+12) | 22% (+10) | 7% (+3) |
Europa League
The draw for EL was not as skewed as the CL draw. Atalanta drew to short straw getting Liverpool and Benifica got Marseille the draw did not affect the Champion probabilities that much.
| Team | Semifinal | Final | Champion |
| Liverpool | 73% (-1) | 57% (+3) | 36% |
| Leverkusen | 68% (+6) | 41% (+5) | 21% (+2) |
| Milan | 59% (+5) | 29% (+2) | 13% |
| Benfica | 61%(+15) | 20% | 9% (+1) |
| Atalanta | 27% (-20) | 15% (-5) | 7% (-2) |
| Roma | 41% (-2) | 17% | 6% (-1) |
| West Ham | 32% (-9) | 13% (-2) | 4.9% (-1) |
| Marseille | 39% (+6) | 9% (-1) | 3.2% (-0.1) |
Europa Conference League
Aston Villa and Lille got tough draws playing each other, whereas Fiorentina and Brugge got advantageous draws.
| Team | Semifinal | Final | Champion |
| Aston Villa | 69% (-9) | 55% (-4) | 37% (-4) |
| Fiorentina | 76% (+14) | 50% (+15) | 23% (+6) |
| Brugge | 64% (+14) | 28% (+6) | 11% (+2) |
| Lille | 31% (-27) | 19% (-11) | 10% (-4) |
| Fenerbahce | 66% (+15) | 20% (-3) | 10% |
| PAOK | 36% (+2) | 11% (+1) | 3.3% (+0.1) |
| Viktoria Plzen | 24% (-9) | 10% | 2.8% (-0.1) |
| Olympiakos | 34% (-1) | 6% (-4) | 2.4% (-0.5) |
The key for Germanu now s that Bayern beat Arsenal and advance to the semis. Likewise for England, if Arsenal beat Bayern, they have very good chances.
Which countries get extra CL spots
| Score | ||||
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| ITA | 96.9% | 20.21 | 18.57 | 22.71 |
| ENG | 84% | 19.8 | 16.63 | 23 |
| GER | 19% | 18.31 | 16.5 | 21.36 |
| FRA | < 1% | 16.06 | 14.42 | 20.08 |
| ESP | < 1% | 16.18 | 14.81 | 18.19 |
GER 34% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 5.7%
ENG 95% if Arsenal reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 71%
GER 52% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 12%
GER 26% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 3%
GER 33% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 9%
ENG 97% if West Ham reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 78%
GER 55% if Bayern wins the Champions League; otherwise 15%
GER 39% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 13%
ENG 94% if Man City reaches the CL final; otherwise 77%
ENG 91% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 75%
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