PL: 29% chance that the FA-cup winner plays in the Europa League.

The FA-cup winners end up playing CL in 71% of our simulations. In most cases (68%) that is Man City, as the other teams have smaller chances to qualify for CL. The sixth team is Man United in 49% of the simulations and they end up in EL in 68% of the simulations, either via the FA-cup or the league position.

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	84%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	71%
League cup winners	100%	100%	>99.99%
Sixth team	100%	97.1%	< 1%
Seventh team	98.0%	74%	< 1%
Eighth team	77%	5%	< 1%

The current top-5 qualify for CL in 63% of the simulations. In 16% Tottenham or Aston Villa are missing out due to PL missing out on the extra CL spot. Only team against is Man United joining the top-3 and one of Aston Villa or Tottenham. West Ham can qualify through the EL adventure, but less likely.

Most likely combo of teams in CL

63%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
3.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham

It's starting to look more and more, 79% now, that the three new teams from the Championship will play in the Championship next year again.

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

79%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
10%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
3.1%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
2.6%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
2.2%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
1.5%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United

 Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	88%	47%	9%		31%	9%
Liverpool	100%	56%	11%
Arsenal	34%	3.1%
Aston Villa	37%	< 1%
Tottenham	< 1%
Man United	19%
Chelsea	11%
West Ham	4.9%

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	85.0	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Liverpool	83.9	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.96%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Arsenal	82.6	+54	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.91%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
56	Aston Villa	69.4	+19	< 1%	99.82%	99.0%	92%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	86%
53	Tottenham	68.4	+20	< 1%	99.50%	97.8%	88%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	80%
47	Man United	62.1	+2	< 1%	83%	64%	15%	3.2%	< 1%	10%	68%	13%
40	Newcastle	55.9	+14	< 1%	33%	12%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	25%	1.4%
39	Chelsea	55.5	+4	< 1%	27%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	31%	1.2%
44	West Ham	55.4	-6	< 1%	20%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	15%	5%
42	Brighton	55.2	+5	< 1%	24%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	< 1%
41	Wolves	54.0	-4	< 1%	12%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	9%	< 1%
38	Fulham	49.1	-3	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.0%	< 1%
35	Bournemouth	46.7	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	40.0	-20	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brentford	38.8	-12	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Everton	38.5	-11	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Forest	35.5	-19	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Luton	29.8	-27	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Burnley	25.9	-40	96.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sheffield United	22.6	-60	99.45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%