PL: Liverpool (42%) favourites after good results for them

 

Hot Teams
Fulham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Wolves: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Brentford: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Luton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Sheffield United: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
67	Liverpool	84.8	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	99.98%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Man City	84.1	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.96%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
65	Arsenal	83.0	+55	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.92%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
59	Aston Villa	70.3	+20	< 1%	99.98%	99.72%	95.8%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	89%
56	Tottenham	69.1	+19	< 1%	99.86%	99.0%	92%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	82%
48	Man United	61.9	+3	< 1%	85%	65%	10%	1.6%	< 1%	11%	74%	8%
43	Newcastle	57.2	+15	< 1%	50%	19%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	38%	1.6%
44	West Ham	54.8	-6	< 1%	17%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	12%	5%
40	Chelsea	54.6	+3	< 1%	22%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	27%	< 1%
42	Brighton	53.7	+4	< 1%	16%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	12%	< 1%
41	Wolves	53.0	-5	< 1%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	6%	< 1%
39	Fulham	49.1	-2	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	1.0%	< 1%
38	Bournemouth	48.6	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Crystal Palace	39.4	-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	Brentford	38.1	-13	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Everton	36.9	-12	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Forest	30.6	-20	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Luton	29.1	-27	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Burnley	26.5	-38	88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Sheffield United	22.5	-59	98.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Liverpool	100%	63%	15%
Man City	85%	39%	7%		22%	7%
Arsenal	35%	3.2%
Aston Villa	32%	< 1%
Tottenham	< 1%
Man United	19%
West Ham	5%
Chelsea	11%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Aston Villa (3.8%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (12%)
Man City	38%	22%	15%
Liverpool	39%	48%	52%
Arsenal	23%	30%	33%
Liverpool vs Sheffield United (2.4%)	Home Win (85%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (5%)
Liverpool	45%	28%	21%
Man City	31%	40%	44%
Arsenal	24%	32%	35%

	Liverpool			Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
92	3.1%	2.4%	99.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%
91	6%	2.6%	97.6%	3.1%	3.1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	9%	3.4%	94%	3.1%	< 1%	-	3.3%	2.5%	91%
89	17%	7%	88%	10%	7%	82%	6%	2.9%	87%
88	23%	7%	78%	17%	6%	73%	10%	3.5%	74%
87	33%	9%	66%	24%	8%	59%	18%	8%	63%
86	44%	11%	52%	37%	13%	47%	25%	7%	50%
85	54%	10%	39%	47%	10%	34%	34%	9%	35%
84	64%	11%	26%	58%	11%	22%	46%	12%	24%
83	74%	10%	16%	70%	11%	14%	56%	10%	15%
82	81%	7%	9%	78%	8%	7%	66%	10%	8%
81	88%	6%	4.7%	85%	7%	3.8%	76%	9%	4.0%
80	92%	4.6%	2.2%	90%	5%	1.8%	83%	7%	1.8%
79	95.4%	3.0%	< 1%	94%	3.6%	< 1%	89%	6%	< 1%
78	97.5%	2.1%	< 1%	96.7%	2.6%	< 1%	93%	4.3%	< 1%
77	98.7%	1.2%	< 1%	98.2%	1.5%	< 1%	95.9%	2.8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Man United (2.4%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Man United	4.7%	7%	15%
Tottenham	84%	83%	79%
Aston Villa	90%	89%	86%

Chelsea vs Man United is important for the EL and Conference League slots.

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Chelsea vs Man United (4.1%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Man United	76%	83%	91%
Chelsea	35%	23%	19%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Chelsea vs Man United (4.8%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Chelsea	54%	39%	32%
Man United	89%	94%	97.6%

 

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Forest vs Fulham (6.8%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Forest	74%	57%	47%
Luton	24%	34%	40%
Burnley	9%	13%	15%
Burnley vs Wolves (3.1%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Burnley	20%	10%	6%
Forest	56%	61%	62%
Luton	30%	33%	35%
Arsenal vs Luton (2.5%)	Home Win (82%)	Draw (11%)	Away Win (6%)
Luton	30%	39%	57%
Forest	61%	56%	45%
Burnley	12%	11%	7%

 

	Sheffield United			Burnley			Luton			Forest			Everton			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
39	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	1.4%	< 1%	99.9%	32%	9%	100%	45%	10%	100%
38	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	3.1%	1.7%	99.99%	43%	11%	100%	56%	11%	>99.99%
37	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	1.5%	< 1%	99.4%	5%	2.1%	99.9%	54%	10%	>99.99%	67%	11%	99.99%
36	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	2.6%	1.1%	99%	9%	3.3%	99.7%	64%	11%	99.93%	76%	9%	99.93%
35	< 1%	< 1%	95%	1.3%	< 1%	95%	6%	3.0%	95%	14%	6%	98.8%	74%	10%	99.7%	84%	8%	99.7%
34	< 1%	< 1%	89%	2.8%	1.5%	87%	9%	3.8%	89%	21%	6%	96.4%	82%	8%	98.7%	90%	6%	98.8%
33	< 1%	< 1%	79%	4.9%	2.0%	76%	14%	5%	79%	29%	8%	92%	88%	6%	96.0%	94%	4.1%	96.2%
32	< 1%	< 1%	60%	8%	3.1%	58%	23%	9%	66%	40%	11%	84%	93%	4.9%	89%	96.9%	2.8%	91%
31	1.4%	< 1%	42%	13%	6%	41%	33%	9%	51%	50%	10%	72%	96.3%	2.9%	77%	98.7%	1.8%	80%
30	2.5%	1.1%	25%	20%	6%	26%	43%	10%	36%	61%	11%	58%	98.2%	1.9%	60%	99.46%	< 1%	65%
29	4.3%	1.8%	12%	28%	8%	13%	57%	14%	22%	72%	11%	43%	99.26%	1.1%	38%	99.82%	< 1%	48%
28	8%	3.5%	5%	39%	11%	7%	68%	11%	13%	81%	9%	27%	99.71%	< 1%	19%	99.97%	< 1%	25%
27	12%	4.3%	1.7%	49%	10%	2.6%	78%	10%	6%	88%	7%	16%	99.91%	< 1%	9%	100%	< 1%	12%
26	18%	6%	< 1%	60%	11%	< 1%	88%	10%	2.4%	94%	6%	7%	99.99%	< 1%	1%	100%	< 1%	-
25	27%	9%	< 1%	71%	12%	< 1%	93%	6%	< 1%	96.9%	3.1%	2.5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
24	36%	9%	< 1%	80%	9%	< 1%	96.8%	3.4%	< 1%	98.7%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	82%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	70%
League cup winners	100%	100%	>99.99%
Sixth team	100%	96.5%	< 1%
Seventh team	97.6%	72%	< 1%
Eighth team	75%	5%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 30 - 33

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	60%	21%	20%	Everton
Forest	39%	24%	37%	Fulham
Burnley	36%	24%	40%	Wolves
Bournemouth	50%	23%	27%	Crystal Palace
West Ham	43%	24%	33%	Tottenham
Arsenal	82%	11%	6%	Luton
Brentford	43%	24%	33%	Brighton
Man City	72%	16%	12%	Aston Villa
Liverpool	85%	10%	5%	Sheffield United
Chelsea	46%	24%	30%	Man United

Most likely combo of teams in CL

67%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
10%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
5.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
2.6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

55%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
28%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
10%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
2.4%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
1.4%	Burnley, Forest, Luton
1.1%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United