PL: Arsenal against the ropes when traveling to Old Trafford

Arsenal need to win at Old Trafford to have a reasonable (>10%) chance on the title.

Villa can clinch a CL spot with a win over Liverpool on Monday.

Tottenham must win remaining matches to have a chance to steal the spot from Villa. They need one more point to mathematically clinch the EL slot.

The other EL slot is most likely given Chelsea, Newcastle or Man United. In most simulations 61 points are needed, which implies 4 points in remaining two matches for Chelsea and Newcastle. Man United's main path to EL goes via a win of the FA cup (22%). The mid-week match between Man United and Newcastle will also be crucial. The same three teams are also battling over the ECL slot.

Forest failed clinching the new contract after Chelsea flipped 1-2 deficit to 3-2 win yesterday. Forest have, however, 3 points and 12 goals advantage, meaning Luton's chances for a new contract are merely mathematical. 

Important matches for title race
Man United vs Arsenal (31.1%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Man City	95%	93%	56%
Arsenal	5%	7%	44%
Tottenham vs Man City (26%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Man City	57%	61%	93%
Arsenal	43%	39%	7%

	Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	42%	42%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	42%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	67%	25%	69%	32%	32%	57%
88	90%	23%	68%	32%	< 1%	-
87	93%	2.9%	43%	57%	25%	10%
86	98.1%	4.9%	15%	85%	28%	7%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Man City (16.3%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Aston Villa	83%	99.1%	100%
Tottenham	17%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (7.5%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Aston Villa	100%	95%	91%
Tottenham	< 1%	5%	9%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
73	16%	16%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	16%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	36%	20%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	65%	29%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	70%	6%	99.8%	14%	14%	30%
68	88%	17%	86%	14%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Newcastle (21.8%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Newcastle	15%	33%	63%
Chelsea	44%	41%	17%
Man United	42%	26%	22%
Brighton vs Chelsea (17.1%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Chelsea	17%	35%	59%
Newcastle	45%	32%	18%
Man United	38%	33%	25%

	Chelsea			Newcastle			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	18%	18%	73%	10%	10%	80%	5%	5%	86%
62	18%	< 1%	-	10%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-
61	39%	21%	54%	26%	15%	64%	15%	10%	65%
60	71%	32%	28%	54%	28%	40%	32%	17%	34%
59	76%	5%	18%	60%	6%	21%	38%	7%	32%
58	90%	15%	6%	81%	21%	10%	59%	21%	23%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Man United vs Newcastle (27.7%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Newcastle	50%	80%	95.7%
Man United	70%	38%	25%
Brighton vs Chelsea (9.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Chelsea	68%	83%	94%
Newcastle	79%	68%	60%
Man United vs Arsenal (8.6%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Man United	66%	52%	36%
Newcastle	61%	68%	79%
Chelsea	73%	80%	85%

	Chelsea			Newcastle			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	18%	18%	98.0%	10%	10%	100%	5%	5%	100%
62	18%	< 1%	-	10%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-
61	39%	21%	94%	26%	15%	96.1%	15%	10%	97.2%
60	71%	32%	84%	54%	28%	87%	32%	17%	74%
59	76%	5%	76%	60%	6%	79%	38%	7%	71%
58	90%	15%	62%	81%	21%	56%	59%	21%	43%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

2%

 

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

85

Man City

89.3

+60

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

77%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

83

Arsenal

86.9

+62

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

23%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

78

Liverpool

81.5

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Aston Villa

69.9

+20

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

95.6%

< 1%

< 1%

4.4%

95.6%

63

Tottenham

65.9

+12

< 1%

100%

99.78%

96.9%

4.4%

< 1%

< 1%

95%

4.4%

57

Chelsea

60.1

+13

< 1%

88%

45%

1.9%

< 1%

< 1%

45%

35%

< 1%

57

Newcastle

59.4

+21

< 1%

76%

42%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

37%

33%

< 1%

54

Man United

58.1

-3

< 1%

36%

14%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

17%

32%

< 1%

52

West Ham

52.4

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Brighton

51.0

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

48.9

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Crystal Palace

47.3

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

46.6

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Fulham

45.5

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

42

Everton

42.5

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Brentford

40.4

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Forest

30.1

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Luton

27.3

-31

>99.99%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

24.1

-39

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

18.3

-64

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%