PL: Man City 56% favourites and two wins from 4th consecutive league title

Man City still in pole position. If they win tomorrow and on Sunday, the win the league. If they win by four goals, goal difference might come in to play.

Aston Villa can clinch fourth spot and a place in CL next season, if they win against against Liverpool.

Man United are unlikely reaching top 6 (<4%) so the path to EL goes mainly via winning the FA cup final. The 6th slot will likely be taken by Newcastle or Chelsea; Newcastle travel to Old Trafford and can clinch a top 7 place with a win, and have a very good chance on a place in the one of the European tournaments.

 

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

85

Man City

89.3

+60

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

56%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

86

Arsenal

88.4

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

44%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

78

Liverpool

81.5

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Aston Villa

69.9

+20

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

95.6%

< 1%

< 1%

4.4%

95.6%

63

Tottenham

65.9

+12

< 1%

100%

99.78%

97.0%

4.4%

< 1%

< 1%

95%

4.4%

57

Chelsea

60.1

+13

< 1%

95%

50%

1.9%

< 1%

< 1%

46%

39%

< 1%

57

Newcastle

59.4

+21

< 1%

87%

47%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

42%

37%

< 1%

54

Man United

56.9

-4

< 1%

18%

3.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

11%

25%

< 1%

52

West Ham

52.4

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Brighton

51.0

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

48.9

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Crystal Palace

47.3

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

46.6

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Fulham

45.5

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

42

Everton

42.5

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Brentford

40.4

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Forest

30.1

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Luton

27.3

-31

>99.99%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

24.1

-39

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

18.2

-64

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

	Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	42%	42%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	42%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	67%	25%	30%	73%	73%	57%
88	90%	23%	27%	73%	< 1%	-
87	93%	3.0%	11%	89%	16%	10%
86	98.0%	5.0%	< 1%	100%	11%	7%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Man City (16.3%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Aston Villa	83%	99.1%	100%
Tottenham	17%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (7.5%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Tottenham	< 1%	5%	9%
Aston Villa	100%	95%	91%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
73	16%	16%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	16%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	36%	20%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	64%	29%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	70%	6%	99.8%	14%	14%	30%
68	87%	17%	86%	14%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Newcastle (17.8%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Newcastle	21%	36%	63%
Chelsea	51%	43%	17%
Brighton vs Chelsea (16.3%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Chelsea	22%	40%	62%
Newcastle	52%	35%	19%

	Chelsea			Newcastle			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	18%	18%	73%	10%	10%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	18%	< 1%	-	10%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	39%	21%	58%	26%	15%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	71%	32%	36%	54%	29%	48%	16%	16%	37%
59	76%	5%	23%	60%	6%	23%	16%	< 1%	-
58	90%	15%	10%	81%	21%	15%	36%	19%	24%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Man United vs Newcastle (16.2%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Newcastle	64%	88%	95.7%
Man United	50%	24%	22%
Brighton vs Chelsea (5.6%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Chelsea	77%	87%	95.1%
Newcastle	85%	77%	72%

	Chelsea			Newcastle			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	18%	18%	98.0%	10%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	18%	< 1%	-	10%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	39%	21%	94%	26%	15%	96.0%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	71%	32%	88%	54%	29%	91%	16%	16%	81%
59	76%	5%	82%	60%	6%	85%	16%	< 1%	-
58	90%	15%	75%	81%	21%	73%	36%	19%	46%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for title race
Tottenham vs Man City (59.2%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Arsenal	79%	74%	15%
Man City	21%	26%	85%