PL: Villa one point from clinching CL spot

Villa need one point against Crystal Palace to clinch the 4th place and a CL spot. Tottenham on the other hand need that Crystal Palace defeat Aston Villa plus that Tottenham win tonight against City and against Sheffield United on Sunday. This triple of wins happen in about 5% of the simulations. Totten need one point to clinch at least EL.

City need to win both matches to clinch the title. If they draw tonight and Arsenal beat Everton on Sunday, City can still win if they thrash West Ham and win with a margin three goals greater than Arsenal's win.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

85

Man City

89.3

+60

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

56%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

86

Arsenal

88.4

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

44%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

79

Liverpool

81.3

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

68

Aston Villa

69.4

+20

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

95%

< 1%

< 1%

5%

95%

63

Tottenham

65.9

+12

< 1%

100%

99.78%

96.9%

5%

< 1%

< 1%

94%

5%

57

Chelsea

60.1

+13

< 1%

95%

50%

1.9%

< 1%

< 1%

46%

40%

< 1%

57

Newcastle

59.4

+21

< 1%

87%

47%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

42%

37%

< 1%

54

Man United

56.9

-4

< 1%

18%

3.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

11%

25%

< 1%

52

West Ham

52.4

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Brighton

51.0

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

48.9

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Crystal Palace

47.3

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

46.6

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Fulham

45.5

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

42

Everton

42.5

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Brentford

40.4

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Forest

30.1

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Luton

27.3

-31

>99.99%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

24.1

-39

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

18.3

-64

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

	Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	42%	42%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	42%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	67%	25%	30%	73%	73%	57%
88	90%	23%	27%	73%	< 1%	-
87	93%	3.0%	11%	89%	16%	10%
86	98.1%	4.9%	< 1%	100%	11%	7%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Man City (21.8%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Aston Villa	79%	100%	100%
Tottenham	21%	< 1%	< 1%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
71	39%	39%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	39%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	64%	24%	99.79%	14%	14%	37%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for title race
Tottenham vs Man City (58.8%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Arsenal	79%	74%	15%
Man City	21%	26%	85%