PL: Man City in pole position (85%) before Match Week 38

Man City are favourites after a 2-0 win in north London. The win also means that Villa clinched a place in next years CL. Tottenham failed clinching the 5th place and need a point on Sunday to clinch the EL slot. If they fail doing that, they have to rely om Chelsea and Newcastle not winning both remaining matches or if Man City win the FA cup. Both Chelsea and Newcastle play tonight in crucial matches for them in the fight for tickets to Europe.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

88

Man City

90.5

+61

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

85%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

86

Arsenal

88.3

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

15%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

79

Liverpool

81.3

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

68

Aston Villa

69.4

+20

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

63

Tottenham

64.9

+11

< 1%

100%

99.60%

94%

< 1%

< 1%

1.5%

98.4%

< 1%

57

Chelsea

60.1

+13

< 1%

95%

50%

3.6%

< 1%

< 1%

45%

40%

< 1%

57

Newcastle

59.4

+21

< 1%

87%

47%

2.2%

< 1%

< 1%

42%

37%

< 1%

54

Man United

56.9

-4

< 1%

18%

3.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

11%

25%

< 1%

52

West Ham

52.4

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Brighton

51.0

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

48.9

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Crystal Palace

47.3

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

46.6

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Fulham

45.5

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

42

Everton

42.5

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Brentford

40.5

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Forest

30.1

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Luton

27.3

-31

>99.99%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

24.1

-39

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

18.2

-64

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Newcastle (18.2%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Newcastle	21%	36%	64%
Chelsea	52%	43%	17%
Brighton vs Chelsea (17.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Chelsea	22%	40%	63%
Newcastle	52%	35%	19%
Tottenham	99.5%	99.5%	96.2%

 

	Tottenham			Chelsea			Newcastle			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	100%	22%	93%	18%	18%	76%	10%	10%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	100%	< 1%	-	18%	< 1%	-	10%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	100%	< 1%	-	39%	21%	58%	25%	15%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	100%	< 1%	-	70%	31%	36%	54%	28%	48%	16%	16%	37%
59	100%	< 1%	-	76%	5%	24%	60%	6%	23%	16%	< 1%	-
58	100%	< 1%	-	90%	15%	10%	81%	21%	15%	36%	20%	24%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Man United vs Newcastle (16.1%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Newcastle	64%	88%	95.5%
Man United	50%	24%	22%
Brighton vs Chelsea (5.7%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Chelsea	77%	87%	95.2%
Newcastle	85%	77%	72%

	Chelsea			Newcastle			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	18%	18%	98.2%	10%	10%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	18%	< 1%	-	10%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	39%	21%	94%	25%	15%	95.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	70%	31%	88%	54%	28%	91%	16%	16%	80%
59	76%	5%	82%	60%	6%	85%	16%	< 1%	-
58	90%	15%	75%	81%	21%	73%	36%	20%	46%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points