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Six matches on Sunday affect the outcome, the two matches with the two top contenders and four matches involving the four teams competing over the places in the European competitions.
Man City win the league if they beat West Ham (at home) or if Arsenal fail beating Everton (at home).
Tottenham clinch 5th place (and EL spot) if they take a point against Sheffield United (at home) or if Chelsea fail winning against Bournemouth.
Chelsea clinch 6th place (and ticket to Europe or an EL spot if Man City win the FA cup) if they take a point against Bournemouth or if Newcastle fail winning against Brentford (away).
Newcastle clinch 7th place if they take as many points against Brentford as Man United take against Brighton.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 88 | Man City | 90.5 | +61 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 85% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 86 | Arsenal | 88.4 | +63 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 79 | Liverpool | 81.3 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 68 | Aston Villa | 69.4 | +20 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 63 | Tottenham | 64.9 | +11 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 88% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.6% | 97.4% | < 1% |
| 60 | Chelsea | 61.9 | +14 | < 1% | 100% | 92% | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | 24% | 75% | < 1% |
| 57 | Newcastle | 58.3 | +21 | < 1% | 69% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 49% | 6% | < 1% |
| 57 | Man United | 58.3 | -3 | < 1% | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25% | 22% | < 1% |
| 52 | West Ham | 52.4 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Brighton | 49.5 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Bournemouth | 48.9 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Crystal Palace | 47.3 | -6 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 46.6 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Fulham | 45.5 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Everton | 42.5 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Brentford | 40.4 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Forest | 30.1 | -19 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Luton | 27.3 | -31 | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 24.1 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 18.3 | -64 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Man City vs West Ham (88.4%) | Home Win (79%) | Draw (13%) | Away Win (8%) |
| Arsenal | < 1% | 73% | 73% |
| Man City | 100% | 27% | 27% |
| Arsenal vs Everton (15.3%) | Home Win (73%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (11%) |
| Arsenal | 21% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Man City | 79% | 100% | 100% |
| Man City | Arsenal | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 79% | 79% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 79% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 92% | 13% | 27% | 73% | 73% | 21% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs Bournemouth (22.7%) | Home Win (56%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (22%) |
| Newcastle | < 1% | < 1% | 28% |
| Chelsea | 83% | 78% | 50% |
| Tottenham | 95.3% | 100% | 100% |
| Brentford vs Newcastle (12.1%) | Home Win (40%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (36%) |
| Newcastle | < 1% | < 1% | 17% |
| Chelsea | 81% | 81% | 64% |
| Sheffield United vs Tottenham (7.1%) | Home Win (22%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (57%) |
| Tottenham | 88% | 100% | 100% |
| Chelsea | 84% | 72% | 72% |
| Tottenham | Chelsea | Man United | Newcastle | |||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 63 | 100% | 22% | 88% | 56% | 56% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 100% | < 1% | - | 56% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 100% | < 1% | - | 78% | 22% | 78% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Brighton vs Man United (29.7%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Newcastle | 80% | 49% | 30% |
| Man United | 22% | 53% | 72% |
| Brentford vs Newcastle (29.3%) | Home Win (40%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (36%) |
| Newcastle | 33% | 52% | 83% |
| Man United | 67% | 48% | 22% |
| Chelsea | 100% | 100% | 95.2% |
| Chelsea | Newcastle | Man United | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 60 | 100% | 22% | 92% | 36% | 36% | 83% | 34% | 34% | 72% |
| 59 | 100% | < 1% | - | 36% | < 1% | - | 34% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 100% | < 1% | - | 60% | 24% | 52% | 58% | 24% | 53% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
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