PL: Crystal Palace hottest team in the league

Palace have taken 6.8 points more thna expected in the last five games. Newcastle, Chelsea, and Man United are fighting over one EL spot and one ECL spot. Man United have the advantage that they can take the EL spot also through a win in the FA cup, giving them a total chance of 36% (ECL, 22%). Chelsea have a slightly easier finish of the league and they have 18% chance on EL (ECL, 41%). Newcastle have two points more a better goal difference, giving them 50% chance on EL (ECL, 34%).

Tottenham need six points in the last three games to clinch a place in EL. They do that in 48% of the simulations, but four won't will be enough if Newcastle don't win everything left or if City beat United in the FA cup final.

Hot Teams
Crystal Palace: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.8 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Everton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected

Titles

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

82

Man City

88.4

+58

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

63%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

83

Arsenal

86.9

+62

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

37%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

78

Liverpool

81.5

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Aston Villa

69.9

+20

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

96.6%

< 1%

< 1%

3.4%

96.6%

60

Tottenham

65.1

+13

< 1%

99.94%

98.7%

90%

3.4%

< 1%

2.9%

93%

3.4%

56

Newcastle

60.3

+22

< 1%

87%

62%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

34%

50%

< 1%

54

Chelsea

58.6

+12

< 1%

68%

22%

2.0%

< 1%

< 1%

41%

18%

< 1%

54

Man United

58.1

-3

< 1%

45%

18%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22%

36%

< 1%

49

West Ham

51.5

-15

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Brighton

50.9

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

50.6

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

48.2

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Fulham

46.2

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Crystal Palace

45.5

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Everton

41.7

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Brentford

38.5

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Forest

31.3

-19

5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Luton

27.9

-30

95.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

24.7

-39

99.06%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

18.9

-64

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

	Tottenham			Newcastle			Man United			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
65	57%	7%	98.8%	6%	6%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	77%	20%	98.7%	6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	90%	14%	94%	17%	11%	83%	5%	5%	95%	8%	8%	72%
62	94%	3.7%	88%	35%	18%	71%	5%	< 1%	-	8%	< 1%	-
61	98.4%	4.4%	80%	42%	7%	74%	15%	10%	68%	21%	13%	45%
60	100%	1.6%	58%	63%	21%	52%	32%	17%	45%	40%	19%	23%
59	100%	< 1%	-	82%	18%	25%	38%	6%	32%	47%	7%	8%
58	100%	< 1%	-	87%	6%	24%	59%	21%	25%	68%	21%	4.4%
57	100%	< 1%	-	95.9%	9%	6%	78%	18%	22%	84%	16%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Forest vs Chelsea (13.4%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Chelsea	40%	53%	77%
Newcastle	92%	87%	76%
Man United	67%	59%	48%
Man United vs Arsenal (9.1%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Man United	76%	56%	45%
Chelsea	46%	59%	68%
Newcastle	79%	85%	87%
Newcastle vs Brighton (8.7%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Newcastle	93%	80%	65%
Chelsea	54%	62%	68%
Man United	54%	58%	66%
Brighton	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%

	Newcastle			Chelsea			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	17%	11%	>99.99%	8%	8%	97.1%	5%	5%	100%
62	35%	18%	98.2%	8%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-
61	42%	7%	98.4%	21%	13%	91%	15%	10%	95.9%
60	63%	21%	93%	40%	19%	81%	32%	17%	84%
59	82%	18%	77%	47%	7%	63%	38%	6%	72%
58	87%	6%	74%	68%	21%	57%	59%	21%	54%
57	95.9%	9%	45%	84%	16%	35%	78%	18%	37%
56	100%	4.1%	16%	89%	5%	17%	84%	7%	30%
55	100%	< 1%	-	96.8%	7%	11%	95%	10%	24%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Forest vs Chelsea (9.2%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Chelsea	5%	11%	31%
Newcastle	57%	54%	42%
Man United	40%	37%	31%
Newcastle vs Brighton (9.1%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Newcastle	61%	43%	28%
Chelsea	12%	21%	30%
Man United	32%	38%	43%
Tottenham	95.7%	98.0%	98.8%