PL: Chelsea in the race for continental competitions

Chelsea are in the race for Europe. They reach EL in 14% of the simulations and ECL in 36% of the simulations. They probably need 7 or 9 points in the last three games to have a go at the EL spot. The ECL spot is within more reach where 5 point will give them a good chance, given the relatively tough schedules for Man United and Newcastle.

CL races unchanged after losses for Villa and Spurs. Villa need another three points to clinch aCL spot mathematically, but two points are likely to suffice given their goal difference. Tottenham probably need to win remaining matches to have a chance on CL, which they do in 9% of the simulations. The big hurdle is, of course, a title racing Man City.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

82

Man City

88.4

+58

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

63%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

83

Arsenal

86.9

+62

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

37%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

78

Liverpool

81.5

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Aston Villa

69.9

+20

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

96.6%

< 1%

< 1%

3.4%

96.6%

60

Tottenham

65.1

+13

< 1%

99.83%

98.1%

88%

3.4%

< 1%

3.3%

93%

3.4%

56

Newcastle

60.3

+22

< 1%

83%

54%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

38%

44%

< 1%

54

Man United

59.4

+1

< 1%

60%

30%

3.0%

< 1%

< 1%

23%

46%

< 1%

54

Chelsea

58.6

+12

< 1%

57%

18%

1.8%

< 1%

< 1%

36%

14%

< 1%

49

West Ham

51.5

-15

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Brighton

50.9

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

50.6

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

48.2

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Fulham

46.2

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Crystal Palace

43.9

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Everton

41.7

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Brentford

38.5

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Forest

31.3

-19

5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Luton

27.9

-30

95.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

24.7

-39

99.07%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

18.9

-64

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

	Aston Villa			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
73	16%	16%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	16%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	36%	20%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	64%	29%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	70%	6%	99.0%	9%	9%	30%
68	87%	17%	91%	9%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brighton (8.2%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Newcastle	54%	36%	23%
Chelsea	10%	18%	24%
Man United	41%	49%	55%
Tottenham	95.1%	97.6%	98.5%
Forest vs Chelsea (8.1%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Chelsea	3.7%	9%	26%
Newcastle	49%	46%	38%
Man United	50%	48%	41%
Man United vs Arsenal (5.7%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Man United	61%	43%	36%
Newcastle	33%	46%	50%
Chelsea	10%	15%	17%
Crystal Palace vs Man United (5.6%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Man United	36%	42%	60%
Newcastle	50%	46%	34%
Chelsea	18%	15%	10%

	Tottenham			Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	50%	26%	100%	1.7%	1.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	56%	7%	98.7%	1.7%	< 1%	-	6%	6%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	77%	20%	98.7%	6%	4.7%	100%	6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	90%	14%	93%	14%	8%	91%	17%	11%	82%	8%	8%	69%
62	94%	3.7%	86%	19%	4.7%	80%	35%	19%	65%	8%	< 1%	-
61	98.4%	4.4%	76%	34%	15%	63%	42%	7%	67%	21%	13%	38%
60	100%	1.6%	49%	49%	15%	41%	63%	21%	41%	40%	19%	17%
59	100%	< 1%	-	59%	10%	30%	82%	18%	17%	47%	7%	6%
58	100%	< 1%	-	76%	17%	24%	87%	6%	15%	68%	21%	2.5%
57	100%	< 1%	-	87%	11%	22%	95.9%	9%	3.2%	84%	16%	< 1%
56	100%	< 1%	-	92%	5%	22%	100%	4.1%	< 1%	89%	5%	< 1%
55	100%	< 1%	-	97.8%	6%	22%	100%	< 1%	-	96.8%	7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Forest vs Chelsea (15.4%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Chelsea	31%	43%	70%
Newcastle	91%	86%	71%
Man United	78%	71%	60%
Newcastle vs Brighton (9.3%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Newcastle	91%	76%	61%
Chelsea	44%	54%	63%
Man United	66%	70%	75%
Crystal Palace vs Man United (7.4%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Man United	57%	67%	84%
Chelsea	59%	51%	39%
Newcastle	84%	82%	77%
Man United vs Arsenal (7.1%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Man United	84%	68%	58%
Chelsea	39%	50%	58%
Newcastle	77%	82%	84%

	Newcastle			Man United			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.7%	1.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	6%	6%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	6%	< 1%	-	6%	4.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	17%	11%	100%	14%	8%	99.7%	8%	8%	97.1%
62	35%	19%	97.7%	19%	4.7%	98.8%	8%	< 1%	-
61	42%	7%	97.9%	34%	15%	95%	21%	13%	88%
60	63%	21%	90%	49%	15%	82%	40%	19%	73%
59	82%	18%	71%	59%	10%	71%	47%	7%	52%
58	87%	6%	66%	76%	17%	52%	68%	21%	42%
57	95.9%	9%	39%	87%	11%	36%	84%	16%	23%
56	100%	4.1%	16%	92%	5%	29%	89%	5%	10%
55	100%	< 1%	-	97.8%	6%	24%	96.8%	7%	5%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (5.9%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Aston Villa	100%	96.4%	93%
Tottenham	< 1%	3.6%	7%