PL: Forest nearly (95%) clinched new PL contract

Forest have 3 points advantage over Luton plus goal difference making them very likely to avoid relegation. Both City and Arsenal won leaving City with a 63 chance on the title. Newcastle are in the mix for an EL spot. Tottenham still big favourite, with Newcastle and Man United tied over the second spot.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

82

Man City

88.4

+58

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

63%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

83

Arsenal

86.9

+62

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

37%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

75

Liverpool

80.5

+43

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Aston Villa

71.3

+21

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

95.3%

< 1%

< 1%

4.7%

95.3%

60

Tottenham

65.9

+14

< 1%

99.93%

99.05%

92%

4.7%

< 1%

2.1%

93%

4.7%

56

Newcastle

60.3

+22

< 1%

88%

57%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

41%

46%

< 1%

54

Man United

59.4

+1

< 1%

69%

33%

2.3%

< 1%

< 1%

28%

48%

< 1%

51

Chelsea

57.4

+7

< 1%

42%

11%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28%

9%

< 1%

49

West Ham

52.5

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

50.6

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Brighton

49.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

48.2

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Fulham

46.2

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Crystal Palace

43.9

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Everton

41.7

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Brentford

38.5

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Forest

31.3

-19

5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Luton

27.9

-30

95.6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

24.7

-39

99.08%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

18.9

-64

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	92%	50%			50%
Arsenal	37%
Liverpool	100%	< 1%
Aston Villa	13%
Man United	22%

Important matches for title race
Man United vs Arsenal (27.5%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Arsenal	16%	22%	60%
Man City	84%	78%	40%
Fulham vs Man City (20.6%)	Home Win (17%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (63%)
Man City	35%	44%	77%
Arsenal	65%	56%	23%

	Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	26%	26%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	26%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	50%	24%	69%	32%	32%	73%
88	72%	22%	68%	32%	< 1%	-
87	79%	7%	44%	57%	25%	27%
86	91%	12%	15%	85%	28%	21%
85	97.0%	6%	11%	89%	3.8%	9%
84	98.5%	1.5%	4%	96.5%	8%	3.1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Aston Villa			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
76	6%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	18%	11%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	35%	17%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	42%	7%	99.6%	1.9%	1.9%	60%
71	63%	21%	98.1%	1.9%	< 1%	-
70	80%	17%	96.3%	7%	4.9%	27%
69	86%	6%	92%	17%	11%	15%
68	95.3%	9%	81%	22%	4.4%	8%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brighton (7.4%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Newcastle	55%	38%	27%
Man United	42%	52%	59%
Chelsea	6%	11%	15%
Tottenham	96.9%	98.8%	99.3%
Crystal Palace vs Man United (6%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Man United	38%	44%	62%
Newcastle	53%	49%	34%
Chelsea	11%	9%	6%
Man United vs Arsenal (5.9%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Man United	63%	45%	38%
Newcastle	34%	48%	53%
Chelsea	6%	9%	11%

	Tottenham			Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	59%	19%	100%	1.8%	1.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	68%	9%	98.7%	1.8%	< 1%	-	6%	6%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	84%	16%	98.7%	6%	4.7%	100%	6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	93%	9%	95%	14%	8%	93%	17%	11%	81%	4.1%	4.1%	66%
62	96.0%	3.1%	88%	19%	4.7%	82%	35%	19%	66%	4.1%	< 1%	-
61	99.04%	3.0%	80%	34%	15%	67%	42%	7%	69%	13%	9%	37%
60	100%	< 1%	58%	49%	15%	46%	63%	21%	44%	25%	12%	17%
59	100%	< 1%	-	59%	10%	33%	82%	18%	22%	32%	7%	6%
58	100%	< 1%	-	76%	17%	26%	87%	6%	20%	50%	19%	2.5%
57	100%	< 1%	-	87%	11%	23%	95.9%	9%	4.9%	65%	15%	< 1%
56	100%	< 1%	-	92%	5%	22%	100%	4.1%	< 1%	74%	9%	< 1%
55	100%	< 1%	-	97.8%	6%	22%	100%	< 1%	-	87%	13%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Forest vs Chelsea (13.2%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Chelsea	20%	30%	54%
Newcastle	94%	91%	79%
Man United	84%	79%	67%
Chelsea vs West Ham (12.9%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (24%)
Chelsea	50%	26%	17%
Newcastle	81%	92%	95.0%
Man United	69%	81%	86%
West Ham	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%
Newcastle vs Brighton (7%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Newcastle	94%	83%	71%
Chelsea	32%	39%	47%
Crystal Palace vs Man United (6.6%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Man United	65%	75%	89%
Chelsea	45%	37%	27%
Man United vs Arsenal (6.5%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Man United	89%	75%	66%
Chelsea	26%	37%	44%

	Newcastle			Man United			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.8%	1.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	6%	6%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	6%	< 1%	-	6%	4.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	17%	11%	100%	14%	8%	99.8%	4.1%	4.1%	96.7%
62	35%	19%	98.7%	19%	4.7%	99.4%	4.1%	< 1%	-
61	42%	7%	98.9%	34%	15%	96.7%	13%	9%	87%
60	63%	21%	94%	49%	15%	89%	25%	12%	72%
59	82%	18%	82%	59%	10%	80%	32%	7%	52%
58	87%	6%	77%	76%	17%	65%	50%	19%	42%
57	95.9%	9%	54%	87%	11%	50%	65%	15%	22%
56	100%	4.1%	34%	92%	5%	41%	74%	9%	10%
55	100%	< 1%	-	97.8%	6%	30%	87%	13%	5%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Luton (14.3%)	Home Win (67%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Luton	< 1%	7%	21%
Forest	98.9%	92%	78%
Forest vs Chelsea (8.5%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Forest	>99.99%	96.3%	89%
Luton	< 1%	3.7%	8%
Burnley	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%

	Luton			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
35	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	9%	100%
34	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	< 1%	-
33	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	15%	100%
32	5%	5%	48%	52%	28%	>99.99%
31	5%	< 1%	-	58%	6%	95%
30	15%	10%	21%	80%	22%	95%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Tottenham (6.3%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Tottenham	1.6%	4.2%	14%
Aston Villa	98.4%	95.8%	86%