PL: Luton closer to relegation (83%) after draw against Everton

Luton failed to win against Everton and are now relegated in 83% of the simulations. Sheffield vs Forest tonight will be key in this race.

Titles

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

79

Man City

88.0

+56

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

65%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

80

Arsenal

86.3

+61

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

35%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

75

Liverpool

80.5

+43

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Aston Villa

71.3

+21

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

95.3%

< 1%

< 1%

4.7%

95.3%

60

Tottenham

65.9

+14

< 1%

99.96%

99.39%

94%

4.7%

< 1%

1.3%

94%

4.7%

54

Man United

59.4

+1

< 1%

73%

42%

2.3%

< 1%

< 1%

25%

55%

< 1%

53

Newcastle

58.9

+20

< 1%

76%

42%

2.9%

< 1%

< 1%

40%

34%

< 1%

51

Chelsea

57.4

+7

< 1%

50%

17%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

32%

13%

< 1%

49

West Ham

52.5

-10

< 1%

1.1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

51.1

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Brighton

49.2

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

48.5

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Fulham

46.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Crystal Palace

43.9

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Everton

41.7

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Brentford

39.2

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Forest

29.7

-21

27%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Luton

27.9

-30

83%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

25.9

-36

90%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

20.2

-62

99.92%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

	Burnley			Luton			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
35	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.6%	3.6%	100%
34	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.6%	< 1%	-
33	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	8%	100%
32	< 1%	< 1%	-	5%	5%	74%	26%	14%	99.2%
31	3.4%	2.6%	80%	5%	< 1%	-	31%	6%	95%
30	10%	6%	56%	15%	10%	45%	52%	21%	92%
29	13%	2.9%	23%	44%	29%	24%	72%	20%	74%
28	26%	14%	14%	48%	4.5%	17%	79%	7%	49%
27	42%	15%	3.3%	72%	24%	4.4%	92%	13%	33%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Sheffield United vs Forest (17.2%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (38%)
Forest	57%	70%	91%
Luton	28%	20%	4.3%
Burnley	15%	9%	4.5%
Burnley vs Newcastle (6.2%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (45%)
Burnley	21%	6%	3.3%
Forest	65%	76%	78%
Sheffield United vs Burnley (6%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (38%)
Burnley	2.8%	6%	19%
Forest	78%	76%	66%