PL: Tottenham qualify for EL in 94% of the simulations

 Tottenham qualify for CL in 4.7% of the simulations. They need to win all remaining matches to have a good (>50%) chance, but three wins might suffice (>10%). In about 1.3% of the simulations they miss both CL and EL. In about half of them they miss because they finish outside top-6 and in about half, they finish 6th, Man United finish outside top-6 and win The FA Cup. They probably need to collapse and take less than three points in the remaining four games; 6 points will guarantee at an EL spot.

Chelsea are in the race for Europe after last night's win in the London derby. They have almost 50% chance to climb ahead of either Newcaste or Man United. They are on average 1.5 points behind Newcastle, suggesting they have a slightly easier finish. They likely need to take seven points in the last four games to have a good chance on Europe. To reach EL, they probably need 10 or 12 points.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

79

Man City

88.0

+56

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

65%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

80

Arsenal

86.3

+61

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

35%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

75

Liverpool

80.5

+43

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Aston Villa

71.3

+21

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

95.3%

< 1%

< 1%

4.7%

95.3%

60

Tottenham

65.9

+14

< 1%

99.96%

99.39%

94%

4.7%

< 1%

1.3%

94%

4.7%

54

Man United

59.4

+1

< 1%

73%

42%

2.3%

< 1%

< 1%

25%

55%

< 1%

53

Newcastle

58.9

+20

< 1%

76%

42%

2.9%

< 1%

< 1%

41%

34%

< 1%

51

Chelsea

57.4

+7

< 1%

49%

17%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

32%

13%

< 1%

49

West Ham

52.5

-10

< 1%

1.1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

51.1

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Brighton

49.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

48.5

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Fulham

46.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Crystal Palace

43.9

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38

Everton

42.2

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Brentford

39.2

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Forest

29.7

-21

32%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25

Luton

28.2

-31

76%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

25.9

-36

91%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

20.2

-62

99.94%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Tottenham (6.2%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Aston Villa	98.4%	95.7%	86%
Tottenham	1.6%	4.3%	14%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
76	6%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	18%	12%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	35%	17%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	42%	7%	99.7%	1.8%	1.8%	60%
71	63%	21%	98.1%	1.8%	< 1%	-
70	80%	17%	96.3%	7%	4.9%	27%
69	86%	6%	92%	17%	11%	15%
68	95.3%	9%	81%	22%	4.4%	8%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Burnley vs Newcastle (6.9%)	Home Win (31%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (45%)
Newcastle	20%	29%	46%
Man United	62%	57%	48%
Chelsea	18%	14%	9%
Crystal Palace vs Man United (6.5%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Man United	44%	52%	69%
Newcastle	40%	35%	24%
Chelsea	17%	14%	8%

	Tottenham			Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	59%	19%	100%	1.8%	1.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	68%	9%	99.4%	1.8%	< 1%	-	2.6%	2.6%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	84%	16%	99.4%	6%	4.7%	100%	2.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	93%	9%	96.9%	14%	8%	95%	9%	6%	81%	4.1%	4.1%	71%
62	96.1%	3.1%	93%	19%	4.7%	90%	19%	10%	67%	4.1%	< 1%	-
61	99.04%	2.9%	87%	34%	15%	78%	25%	6%	69%	13%	9%	48%
60	100%	< 1%	68%	49%	15%	58%	42%	17%	47%	25%	12%	27%
59	100%	< 1%	-	59%	10%	46%	58%	16%	26%	32%	7%	14%
58	100%	< 1%	-	76%	17%	33%	67%	10%	22%	50%	19%	8%
57	100%	< 1%	-	87%	11%	25%	82%	15%	7%	65%	15%	1.8%
56	100%	< 1%	-	92%	5%	23%	91%	9%	1.3%	74%	9%	< 1%
55	100%	< 1%	-	97.8%	6%	22%	95.1%	3.9%	< 1%	87%	13%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Chelsea vs West Ham (13.7%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (24%)
Chelsea	60%	35%	23%
Newcastle	66%	81%	85%
West Ham	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%
Man United	74%	83%	87%
Burnley vs Newcastle (9%)	Home Win (31%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (45%)
Newcastle	58%	71%	87%
Chelsea	56%	48%	37%
Man United	83%	80%	76%
Crystal Palace vs Man United (5.5%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Man United	70%	79%	91%
Chelsea	52%	46%	37%

	Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
65	1.8%	< 1%	-	2.6%	2.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	6%	4.7%	100%	2.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	14%	8%	99.9%	9%	6%	100%	4.1%	4.1%	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	19%	4.7%	99.7%	19%	10%	98.7%	4.1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	34%	15%	98.2%	25%	6%	98.9%	13%	9%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	49%	15%	93%	42%	17%	94%	25%	12%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	59%	10%	87%	58%	16%	84%	32%	7%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	76%	17%	72%	67%	10%	78%	50%	19%	57%	1.3%	1.3%	40%
57	87%	11%	55%	82%	15%	56%	65%	15%	34%	1.3%	< 1%	-
56	92%	5%	43%	91%	9%	36%	74%	9%	18%	4.9%	3.6%	7%
55	97.8%	6%	30%	95.1%	3.9%	23%	87%	13%	9%	21%	16%	1.6%
54	100%	2.2%	24%	98.7%	3.7%	6%	94%	7%	1.5%	24%	2.9%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points