Copa: Argentina win Group A (99.44%)

Argentina have most likely won Group A. Canada and Chile play a decider on the second place on Saturday. Canada finish second if they win or if they draw and Peru do not win against Argentina. Chile must beat Canada to have a chance and if Peru also win, goal difference will decide. Peru have to beat Argentina to have a chance and then hope that Chile or Canada draw or that Chile win with small margin.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Argentina	2	+3	6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.44%	100%
Canada	2	-1	3	3.0%	37%	59%	< 1%	60%
Chile	2	-1	1	21%	42%	37%	< 1%	37%
Peru	2	-1	1	76%	20%	3.1%	< 1%	3.1%

Canada

Chile - Canada
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	92%	100%	Arg - Per
< 1%	100%	100%	62%	Home
< 1%	100%	100%	62%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	37%	Away

Chile

Chile - Canada
+4	+3	2-0	3-1	4-2	1-0	2-1	3-2	Draw	Away
99.9%	99.8%	98.2%	99.0%	99.4%	93%	95.5%	97.2%	< 1%	< 1%	Arg - Per
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	50%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	35%	0-1
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	50%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	26%	1-2
-	53%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	-3
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-4

Peru

Argentina - Peru
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	-3	-4
< 1%	< 1%	28%	36%	58%	63%	Chi - Can
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	-	< 1%	+4
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	47%	-	< 1%	+3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	-	1.8%	2-0
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	-	1.0%	3-1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	-	< 1%	4-2
< 1%	< 1%	50%	100%	100%	-	7%	1-0
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	50%	100%	-	4.5%	2-1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	-	2.8%	3-2
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	8%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Away

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Argentina (99%)
		Argentina (82%) Ecuador (7%)
Venezuela (31%) Ecuador (31%) Mexico (29%)
				Argentina (70%) Mexico (8%)
Venezuela (45%) Mexico (37%) Ecuador (16%)
		Canada (26%) Venezuela (23%) Mexico (21%) Chile (16%)
Canada (59%) Chile (37%)
						Argentina (47%) Colombia (14%) Brazil (13%)
Uruguay (67%) United States (31%)
		Uruguay (37%) Brazil (26%) Colombia (17%) United States (14%)
Brazil (45%) Colombia (31%) Costa Rica (13%)
				Colombia (30%) Uruguay (27%) Brazil (27%)
Colombia (62%) Brazil (33%)
		Colombia (39%) Brazil (22%) United States (20%) Uruguay (14%)
United States (53%) Uruguay (29%) Panama (15%)