Copa: Colombia clinch a place in the quarterfinals

Brazil need a draw against Colombia or hope that Costa Rica do not thrash Paraguay/

Group D				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Colombia	2	+4	6	< 1%	< 1%	40%	60%	100%
Brazil	2	+3	4	< 1%	< 1%	60%	40%	99.66%
Costa Rica	2	-3	1	46%	53%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Paraguay	2	-4	0	54%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Brazil

Brazil - Colombia
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
100%	100%	99.8%	99.3%	98.2%	95%	Par - Cos
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.90%	-1
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95%	99.4%	-2
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	98.2%	0-3
100%	100%	100%	100%	69%	< 1%	97%	1-4
100%	100%	100%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	-4

Costa Rica

Paraguay - Costa Rica
Home	Draw	-1	-2	0-3	1-4	-4
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	3%	10%	Bra - Col
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	41%	< 1%	-2
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	100%	1.8%	-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	100%	100%	100%	5%	-4

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
1.87; Brazil have 19% if they win against Colombia; otherwise 15%
1.75; Colombia have 17% if they draw (or win) against Brazil; otherwise 13%

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Argentina (99%)
		Argentina (79%) Ecuador (13%)
Ecuador (58%) Mexico (24%) Venezuela (18%)
				Argentina (68%) Ecuador (11%)
Venezuela (82%) Ecuador (13%)
		Venezuela (42%) Canada (27%) Chile (17%)
Canada (59%) Chile (37%)
						Argentina (45%) Brazil (17%) Colombia (15%)
Uruguay (99%)
		Uruguay (46%) Brazil (32%) Colombia (21%)
Brazil (60%) Colombia (40%)
				Brazil (34%) Colombia (33%) Uruguay (24%)
Colombia (60%) Brazil (40%)
		Colombia (43%) Brazil (29%) United States (16%)
Panama (53%) United States (46%)