Copa: The US in trouble after loss against Panama

Uruguay are through unless they lose with more than three goals against the USA. Panama need to take more points against Bolivia than the US do against Uruguay or catch up the two-goal advantage USA have. The different scenarios are detailed in tables below.

Group C				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Uruguay	2	+7	6	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	99.0%	99.97%
United States	2	+1	3	< 1%	53%	46%	< 1%	47%
Panama	2	-1	3	3.6%	44%	53%	< 1%	53%
Bolivia	2	-7	0	96.4%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Uruguay

United States - Uruguay
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
99%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Pan - Bol
97%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.95%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

United States

United States - Uruguay
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	0-3	1-4	0-4
100%	98.6%	95.3%	88%	50%	27%	26%	11%	17%	3%	Pan - Bol
100%	100%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	+4
100%	100%	100%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	+3
100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	27%	+2
100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	27%	+1
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	50%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	91%	0-1
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	1-2
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	2-3
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	96.2%	-2
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.6%	0-3

Panama

Panama - Bolivia
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3
96%	88%	73%	73%	50%	9%	12%	13%	3.8%	< 1%	Uni - Uru
6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	+4
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	+3
99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	+2
100%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	+1
100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	50%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	73%	-1
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	74%	-2
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	89%	0-3
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	1-4
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	96%	0-4

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Argentina (99%)
		Argentina (79%) Ecuador (13%)
Ecuador (58%) Mexico (24%) Venezuela (18%)
				Argentina (68%) Ecuador (11%)
Venezuela (82%) Ecuador (13%)
		Venezuela (42%) Canada (27%) Chile (17%)
Canada (59%) Chile (37%)
						Argentina (46%) Colombia (15%) Brazil (14%)
Uruguay (99%)
		Uruguay (54%) Brazil (25%) Colombia (16%)
Brazil (45%) Colombia (31%) Costa Rica (13%)
				Colombia (32%) Uruguay (29%) Brazil (28%)
Colombia (62%) Brazil (33%)
		Colombia (45%) Brazil (24%) United States (17%)
Panama (53%) United States (46%)