Netherlands and France with command in Group D, while Group E is more open after surprise results yesterday.
| Group D | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Netherlands | 1 | +1 | 3 | 2.6% | 21% | 43% | 33% | 93% |
| France | 1 | +1 | 3 | 1.3% | 6% | 30% | 62% | 98.0% |
| Poland | 1 | -1 | 0 | 64% | 29% | 6% | 1.4% | 23% |
| Austria | 1 | -1 | 0 | 32% | 44% | 21% | 3.1% | 53% |
| Group E | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Romania | 1 | +3 | 3 | 10% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 85% |
| Slovakia | 1 | +1 | 3 | 15% | 21% | 22% | 41% | 82% |
| Belgium | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21% | 23% | 34% | 22% | 75% |
| Ukraine | 1 | -3 | 0 | 54% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 39% |
| Group F | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 9% | 22% | 66% | 95.4% |
| Czechia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23% | 30% | 32% | 15% | 67% |
| Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28% | 32% | 28% | 12% | 61% |
| Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47% | 30% | 18% | 6% | 41% |
Portugal
| Portugal - Czechia | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 99.1% | 94% | 84% | Tur - Geo | ||
| 99.1% | 94% | 84% | 95.4% | Home | |
| 99.1% | 94% | 83% | 95.4% | Draw | |
| 99.1% | 94% | 83% | 95.2% | Away | |
Czechia
| Portugal - Czechia | ||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | Away | |||
| 51% | 55% | 58% | 61% | 76% | 92% | Tur - Geo | ||
| 51% | 55% | 58% | 61% | 76% | 92% | 67% | Home | |
| 52% | 56% | 60% | 63% | 76% | 92% | 68% | Draw | |
| 51% | 54% | 57% | 60% | 76% | 92% | 66% | Away | |
Turkey
| Turkey - Georgia | |||||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 94% | 92% | 88% | 83% | 50% | 29% | 25% | 22% | 20% | Por - Cze | ||
| 94% | 92% | 88% | 83% | 51% | 32% | 27% | 23% | 20% | 62% | Home | |
| 94% | 92% | 88% | 84% | 49% | 24% | 23% | 20% | 20% | 60% | Draw | |
| 94% | 92% | 88% | 83% | 49% | 24% | 21% | 19% | 17% | 59% | Away | |
Georgia
| Turkey - Georgia | |||||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 13% | 15% | 17% | 21% | 39% | 74% | 81% | 86% | 89% | Por - Cze | ||
| 14% | 15% | 19% | 23% | 39% | 74% | 81% | 86% | 89% | 41% | Home | |
| 12% | 14% | 16% | 18% | 38% | 76% | 81% | 85% | 89% | 40% | Draw | |
| 11% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 38% | 74% | 80% | 85% | 88% | 39% | Away | |
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Spain (71%) Italy (25%) | ||||||||
Spain (52%) Italy (17%) Belgium (4%) | ||||||||
Romania (12%) Turkey (11%) Czechia (10%) Ukraine (9%) Belgium (9%) | ||||||||
Spain (31%) Germany (30%) Italy (9%) England (4%) | ||||||||
Germany (73%) Switzerland (21%) | ||||||||
Germany (52%) Denmark (12%) Switzerland (10%) | ||||||||
Denmark (32%) Serbia (29%) Slovenia (23%) England (15%) | ||||||||
Spain (18%) Germany (18%) Portugal (14%) France (10%) Netherlands (9%) | ||||||||
Portugal (66%) Czechia (15%) | ||||||||
Portugal (44%) Croatia (11%) Italy (7%) | ||||||||
Croatia (19%) Hungary (13%) Italy (13%) Serbia (11%) Slovenia (8%) | ||||||||
Portugal (25%) Netherlands (17%) France (16%) Belgium (10%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (43%) France (30%) Austria (21%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (30%) France (23%) Belgium (18%) Austria (12%) | ||||||||
Belgium (34%) Romania (31%) Slovakia (22%) | ||||||||
France (22%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) England (9%) | ||||||||
Slovakia (41%) Romania (29%) Belgium (22%) | ||||||||
Belgium (14%) Croatia (12%) Slovakia (12%) Italy (8%) Romania (8%) | ||||||||
Croatia (17%) Austria (11%) Italy (11%) Serbia (10%) Slovenia (8%) | ||||||||
France (37%) Netherlands (17%) Belgium (7%) Portugal (7%) | ||||||||
France (62%) Netherlands (33%) | ||||||||
France (49%) Netherlands (23%) Portugal (10%) | ||||||||
Czechia (32%) Turkey (28%) Portugal (22%) Georgia (18%) | ||||||||
France (25%) England (15%) Netherlands (10%) Croatia (8%) | ||||||||
England (77%) Denmark (13%) | ||||||||
England (53%) Denmark (7%) Belgium (6%) | ||||||||
Romania (13%) Austria (11%) Ukraine (10%) Belgium (10%) Slovakia (10%) | ||||||||
England (29%) Italy (14%) Croatia (11%) Spain (11%) | ||||||||
Switzerland (54%) Germany (22%) Scotland (16%) | ||||||||
Italy (26%) Croatia (20%) Spain (18%) Switzerland (17%) | ||||||||
Italy (41%) Croatia (31%) Spain (26%) |
What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?
| Pts | GD | Probability | Last 16 | Chance |
| 4 | - | 31% | 31% | 98.8% |
| 3 | 0 | 7% | 6% | 90% |
| 3 | 4-5 | 3.1% | 2.5% | 82% |
| 3 | 3-4 | 3.0% | 2.3% | 78% |
| 3 | 2-3 | 1.7% | 1.3% | 75% |
| 3 | 5-7 | 1.6% | 1.1% | 69% |
| 3 | 4-6 | 2.8% | 1.9% | 66% |
| 3 | 3-5 | 3.1% | 1.9% | 61% |
| 3 | 2-4 | 1.8% | < 1% | 56% |
| 3 | 4-7 | 2.1% | < 1% | 48% |
| 3 | 3-6 | 2.6% | 1.1% | 44% |
| 3 | 2-5 | 1.7% | < 1% | 40% |
| 3 | 3-7 | 1.7% | < 1% | 30% |
| 3 | -5 | 2.4% | < 1% | 22% |
| 2 | -1 | 5.0% | < 1% | 10% |
| Group E | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 43% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 43% | |
| Romania | 3rd | 30% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 25% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 4% | 9% | |
| Slovakia | 3rd | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | |
| Belgium | 3rd | 23% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 3% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 3% | 9% | |
| Ukraine | 3rd | 26% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | |
| Group B | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 31% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 69% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 31% | |
| Spain | 3rd | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| Italy | 3rd | 32% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 13% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 13% | |
| Albania | 3rd | 15% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | |
| Croatia | 3rd | 51% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 36% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 15% | |
| Group D | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 24% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 67% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 24% | |
| Netherlands | 3rd | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | |
| France | 3rd | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | |
| Poland | 3rd | 29% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | |
| Austria | 3rd | 44% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 29% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 8% | |
| Group F | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 31% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 31% | |
| Portugal | 3rd | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | |
| Czechia | 3rd | 30% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 20% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 9% | |
| Turkey | 3rd | 32% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 10% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 20% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 9% | |
| Georgia | 3rd | 30% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 8% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 7% | |
| Group A | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | 5% | 4% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | < 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | < 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 27% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 61% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 4% | 27% | |
| Germany | 3rd | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| Switzerland | 3rd | 20% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | |
| Hungary | 3rd | 43% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 10% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 25% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 10% | |
| Scotland | 3rd | 33% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | |
| Group C | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 12% | 31% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 58% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 11% | 31% | |
| England | 3rd | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | |
| Denmark | 3rd | 31% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 11% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 11% | |
| Slovenia | 3rd | 32% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 12% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 12% | |
| Serbia | 3rd | 30% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 3% | |
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