Euro: Will Spain or Italy join Germany into the knockout stage?

Germany have clinched a spot in the knockout stage and Switzerland only miss in five out 10,000 simulations. Hungary must beat Scotland and hope for the best and a better goal difference might help. For Scotland a win against Hungary is most likely sufficient (>96%) and a draw means very slim chances (7%).

Today in Group B, the winner between Spain and Italy clinch a spot in the knockout stage. A draw probably means very good chances for both teams.

In Group C, England can clinch advancement with a draw against Denmark, although they need to win the clinch the advancement mathematically. Denmark almost (>99%) qualified for the knockout stage if they win. If they draw or lose, they should hope for a goalless draw between Serbia and Slovenia. The winner between Serbia and Slovenia have good chances (especially Slovenia) but a draw means they are in trouble before the last group match.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Germany	2	+6	6	< 1%	< 1%	18%	82%	100%
Switzerland	2	+2	4	< 1%	2.1%	80%	18%	99.95%
Scotland	2	-4	1	45%	53%	2.1%	< 1%	32%
Hungary	2	-4	0	55%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	29%

Switzerland

Germany - Switzerland
Home	Draw	Away
99.93%	100%	100%	Sco - Hun
99.8%	100%	100%	99.85%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Scotland

Scotland - Hungary
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
99.9%	99.4%	98.1%	96.7%	7%	< 1%	Ger - Swi
100%	99.5%	98.1%	96.7%	7%	< 1%	32%	Home
100%	99%	98%	96.7%	7%	< 1%	32%	Draw
99.9%	99%	98%	97%	7%	< 1%	32%	Away

Hungary

Scotland - Hungary
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3	1-4	-4
< 1%	< 1%	49%	53%	56%	66%	71%	85%	88%	94%	Ger - Swi
< 1%	< 1%	49%	53%	56%	66%	71%	85%	88%	94%	29%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	49%	52%	56%	65%	71%	86%	88%	93%	29%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	49%	52%	56%	66%	71%	85%	88%	94%	29%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
5.26; Hungary have 1% if they win against Scotland; otherwise 0%
3.07; Scotland have 0.7% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 0.017%
2.45; Hungary have 0.66% if they draw (or win) against Scotland; otherwise 0%
1.98; Scotland have 0.42% if they draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 0%
1.79; Hungary have 0.59% if Scotland and Hungary do not draw ; otherwise 0%

Group B				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Spain	1	+3	3	< 1%	2.6%	30%	67%	98.8%
Italy	1	+1	3	1.8%	26%	39%	33%	90%
Albania	2	-1	1	62%	32%	5%	< 1%	10%
Croatia	2	-3	1	35%	39%	26%	< 1%	41%

Group C				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
England	1	+1	3	1.3%	7%	15%	77%	97.9%
Denmark	1	0	1	23%	31%	33%	13%	63%
Slovenia	1	0	1	38%	32%	23%	7%	48%
Serbia	1	-1	0	37%	30%	29%	2.9%	55%

England

Denmark - England
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
87%	88%	91%	92%	99.96%	100%	Slo - Ser
90%	90%	93%	96.3%	99.98%	100%	98.8%	Home
88%	88%	90%	92%	99.96%	100%	97.9%	Draw
86%	87%	89%	89%	99.96%	100%	97.4%	Away

Denmark

Denmark - England
Home	Draw	Away
99.90%	66%	46%	Slo - Ser
99.93%	64%	46%	63%	Home
99.9%	69%	56%	69%	0-0
99.8%	68%	48%	64%	1-1
99.9%	67%	43%	61%	2-2
99.8%	67%	43%	62%	3-3
99.91%	65%	45%	62%	Away

Slovenia

Slovenia - Serbia
Home	Draw	Away
99.76%	43%	17%	Den - Eng
99.6%	33%	15%	46%	Home
99.8%	41%	16%	48%	Draw
99.8%	47%	17%	50%	Away

Serbia

Slovenia - Serbia
+3	+2	+1	0-0	1-1	2-2	-1	-2	-3	-4
16%	20%	23%	37%	41%	43%	83%	88%	91%	91%	Den - Eng
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	37%	37%	37%	83%	88%	91%	92%	48%	Home
20%	27%	30%	37%	37%	38%	83%	88%	91%	92%	57%	Draw
21%	27%	30%	38%	44%	48%	83%	88%	91%	91%	58%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
1.39; Denmark have 2% if they win against England; otherwise 0.82%
1.15; Serbia have 0.96% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 0.33%
1.14; Denmark have 1.5% if they draw (or win) against England; otherwise 0.72%

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Spain (67%) Italy (33%)
		Spain (50%) Italy (23%) Belgium (5%)
Turkey (15%) Romania (15%) Czechia (14%) Ukraine (12%) Belgium (11%)
				Germany (34%) Spain (30%) Italy (12%) England (4%)
Germany (82%) Switzerland (18%)
		Germany (59%) Denmark (11%) Serbia (9%)
Denmark (33%) Serbia (29%) Slovenia (23%) England (15%)
						Germany (19%) Spain (17%) Portugal (16%) France (10%) Netherlands (9%)
Portugal (76%) Turkey (19%)
		Portugal (53%) Hungary (9%) Turkey (8%)
Hungary (23%) Scotland (23%) Serbia (10%) Italy (10%)
				Portugal (30%) Netherlands (17%) France (16%) Belgium (10%)
Netherlands (43%) France (30%) Austria (21%)
		Netherlands (30%) France (23%) Belgium (18%) Austria (12%)
Belgium (35%) Romania (31%) Slovakia (22%)
								France (22%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) England (9%)
Slovakia (41%) Romania (29%) Belgium (22%)
		Belgium (14%) Slovakia (12%) Austria (11%) Romania (8%) Netherlands (7%)
Austria (18%) Serbia (13%) Poland (11%) Netherlands (10%) Slovenia (10%)
				France (38%) Netherlands (18%) Belgium (7%) Portugal (6%)
France (62%) Netherlands (33%)
		France (49%) Netherlands (23%) Turkey (9%)
Turkey (44%) Czechia (33%) Portugal (19%)
						France (26%) England (16%) Netherlands (11%) Italy (8%)
England (77%) Denmark (13%)
		England (54%) Denmark (7%) Belgium (5%)
Turkey (14%) Czechia (13%) Romania (12%) Austria (11%) Ukraine (9%)
				England (30%) Italy (13%) Spain (13%) Switzerland (10%)
Switzerland (80%) Germany (18%)
		Switzerland (26%) Italy (25%) Spain (21%) Croatia (17%)
Italy (39%) Spain (30%) Croatia (26%)

What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
4	-	30%	30%	99.18%
3	0	6%	6%	93%
3	4-5	3.4%	2.9%	87%
3	3-4	2.8%	2.4%	84%
3	4-6	2.9%	2.2%	74%
3	3-5	3.5%	2.4%	69%
3	2-4	1.4%	< 1%	65%
3	4-7	1.9%	1.1%	60%
3	3-6	3.2%	1.7%	54%
3	2-5	2.4%	1.2%	49%
3	-4	2.8%	1.2%	44%
2	4-5	1.6%	< 1%	25%
2	3-4	1.7%	< 1%	25%
2	-3	3.9%	< 1%	9%
2	-4	4.3%	< 1%	7%

Group E

point

2

3

4

GD

-4

-3

3-4

4-5

-4

2-5

3-6

4-7

2-4

3-5

4-6

3-4

4-5

0

-

3rd

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

5%

2%

3%

2%

1%

3%

3%

3%

3%

8%

43%

3rd & Last 16

86%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

7%

43%

Romania

3rd

30%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

1%

2%

4%

9%

3rd & Last 16

26%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

1%

4%

9%

Slovakia

3rd

21%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

13%

3rd & Last 16

19%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

13%

Belgium

3rd

23%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

3%

9%

3rd & Last 16

20%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

3%

9%

Ukraine

3rd

26%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3%

1%

2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

12%

3rd & Last 16

21%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

12%

Group F

point

2

3

4

GD

-4

-3

3-4

4-5

-4

2-5

3-6

4-7

2-4

3-5

4-6

3-4

4-5

0

-

3rd

100%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

1%

5%

< 1%

3%

3%

< 1%

4%

4%

4%

6%

8%

25%

3rd & Last 16

75%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

< 1%

2%

2%

< 1%

3%

3%

3%

5%

8%

25%

Turkey

3rd

34%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

3%

11%

3rd & Last 16

28%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

2%

3%

11%

Portugal

3rd

4%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

3rd & Last 16

4%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

Czechia

3rd

39%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

4%

8%

3rd & Last 16

28%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

2%

4%

8%

Georgia

3rd

23%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3%

< 1%

1%

1%

< 1%

1%

2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4%

3rd & Last 16

16%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4%

Group D

point

2

3

4

GD

-4

-3

3-4

4-5

-4

2-5

3-6

4-7

2-4

3-5

4-6

3-4

4-5

0

-

3rd

100%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

1%

4%

2%

3%

2%

3%

4%

3%

6%

5%

7%

25%

3rd & Last 16

73%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

2%

5%

4%

7%

24%

Netherlands

3rd

21%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

10%

3rd & Last 16

18%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

10%

France

3rd

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3%

3rd & Last 16

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3%

Poland

3rd

29%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

3rd & Last 16

18%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

4%

Austria

3rd

44%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

2%

< 1%

3%

2%

5%

8%

3rd & Last 16

32%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

1%

< 1%

2%

2%

5%

8%

Group C

point

2

3

4

GD

-4

-3

3-4

4-5

-4

2-5

3-6

4-7

2-4

3-5

4-6

3-4

4-5

0

-

3rd

100%

2%

4%

5%

3%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

2%

< 1%

3%

2%

12%

31%

3rd & Last 16

65%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

1%

< 1%

3%

2%

11%

31%

England

3rd

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4%

3rd & Last 16

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4%

Denmark

3rd

31%

< 1%

2%

2%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4%

11%

3rd & Last 16

17%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4%

11%

Slovenia

3rd

32%

1%

2%

2%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3%

12%

3rd & Last 16

18%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3%

12%

Serbia

3rd

30%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

1%

< 1%

3%

2%

5%

3%

3rd & Last 16

23%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

1%

4%

3%

Group A

point

2

3

4

GD

-4

-3

3-4

4-5

-4

2-5

3-6

4-7

2-4

3-5

4-6

3-4

4-5

0

-

3rd

100%

24%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

8%

9%

3%

< 1%

7%

5%

< 1%

4%

2%

31%

3rd & Last 16

61%

2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4%

5%

2%

< 1%

4%

4%

< 1%

3%

2%

30%

Germany

3rd

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Switzerland

3rd

2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

3rd & Last 16

2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

Scotland

3rd

53%

24%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29%

3rd & Last 16

30%

2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28%

Hungary

3rd

45%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

8%

9%

3%

< 1%

7%

5%

< 1%

4%

2%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

29%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4%

5%

2%

< 1%

4%

4%

< 1%

3%

2%

< 1%

Group B

point

2

3

4

GD

-4

-3

3-4

4-5

-4

2-5

3-6

4-7

2-4

3-5

4-6

3-4

4-5

0

-

3rd

100%

< 1%

19%

2%

4%

2%

< 1%

1%

1%

< 1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

< 1%

27%

3rd & Last 16

40%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

1%

1%

< 1%

26%

Spain

3rd

3%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

3rd & Last 16

2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

Italy

3rd

26%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

< 1%

9%

3rd & Last 16

18%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

9%

Albania

3rd

32%

< 1%

< 1%

2%

4%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3%

3rd & Last 16

4%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3%

Croatia

3rd

39%

< 1%

19%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

14%

3rd & Last 16

15%

< 1%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

13%