Euro: Germany and Switzerland can secure a spot in the knockout stage.

Portugal and Turkey in the lead in Group F after tight wins.

Group F				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Turkey	1	+2	3	3.5%	33%	44%	19%	89%
Portugal	1	+1	3	< 1%	3.8%	19%	76%	98.9%
Czechia	1	-1	0	24%	40%	33%	3.3%	61%
Georgia	1	-2	0	71%	23%	3.7%	1.6%	19%

Today Germany and Switzerland can clinch a spot in the knockout-stage with a win against Hungary and Scotland, respectively, and a draw means advancement in practice (>99.7%). For Hungary and Scotland a win or at least point would be essential.

In Group B, Croatia and play a key Balkan derby. Croatia are out if they lose and Italy take a point against Spain, as detailed in tables below.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Germany	1	+4	3	< 1%	5.0%	22%	73%	98.9%
Switzerland	1	+2	3	6%	19%	54%	21%	90%
Hungary	1	-2	0	44%	43%	9%	4.6%	38%
Scotland	1	-4	0	50%	33%	16%	1.7%	33%

Germany

Germany - Hungary
Home	Draw	Away
100%	>99.99%	94%	Sco - Swi
100%	>99.99%	90%	97.9%	Home
100%	100%	93%	98.7%	Draw
100%	100%	99.0%	99.81%	Away

Switzerland

Scotland - Switzerland
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
46%	54%	67%	77%	99.90%	100%	Ger - Hun
48%	58%	76%	90%	99.94%	100%	93%	Home
48%	52%	59%	64%	99.9%	100%	86%	Draw
39%	44%	50%	52%	99.7%	100%	83%	Away

Hungary

Germany - Hungary
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
13%	18%	24%	30%	45%	72%	Sco - Swi
13%	17%	21%	26%	45%	72%	36%	Home
13%	18%	25%	32%	46%	72%	39%	Draw
13%	18%	25%	33%	46%	72%	39%	Away

Scotland

Scotland - Switzerland
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
78%	74%	66%	59%	31%	12%	8%	6%	5%	Ger - Hun
81%	78%	69%	59%	31%	12%	8%	6%	5%	34%	Home
75%	70%	64%	61%	30%	12%	8%	6%	5%	33%	Draw
75%	69%	60%	56%	30%	10%	7%	5%	4%	31%	Away

Group B				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Spain	1	+3	3	1.3%	2.3%	26%	71%	98.6%
Italy	1	+1	3	1.5%	32%	41%	25%	90%
Albania	1	-1	0	83%	15%	2.2%	< 1%	9%
Croatia	1	-3	0	15%	51%	31%	3.7%	70%

Spain

Spain - Italy
Home	Draw	Away
100%	>99.99%	95.4%	Cro - Alb
100%	>99.99%	95%	98.4%	Home
100%	>99.99%	96.3%	98.9%	Draw
100%	100%	99.1%	99.7%	Away

Italy

Spain - Italy
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
69%	72%	78%	84%	99.4%	100%	Cro - Alb
70%	73%	79%	86%	99.6%	100%	91%	Home
67%	72%	78%	84%	98.5%	100%	90%	Draw
65%	68%	71%	73%	99.9%	100%	87%	Away

Albania

Croatia - Albania
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3
< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	2.0%	9%	60%	63%	66%	79%	88%	Spa - Ita
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	59%	64%	67%	83%	91%	8%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	60%	62%	65%	75%	86%	8%	Draw
1.9%	2.8%	5.0%	7%	9%	60%	64%	65%	75%	85%	11%	Away

Croatia

Croatia - Albania
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3
94%	89%	81%	75%	40%	10%	11%	14%	6%	3%	Spa - Ita
94%	89%	81%	76%	41%	22%	24%	30%	12%	6%	71%	Home
95%	89%	82%	75%	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	69%	Draw
94%	89%	81%	74%	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	69%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
6.29; Croatia have 6.7% if they win against Albania; otherwise 2.2%
5.51; Croatia have 6.2% if they draw (or win) against Albania; otherwise 0.74%
1.56; Croatia have 6% if they and Albania do not draw ; otherwise 3.2%

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Spain (71%) Italy (25%)
		Spain (53%) Italy (17%) Belgium (4%)
Turkey (14%) Czechia (13%) Romania (12%) Belgium (9%) Ukraine (9%)
				Spain (32%) Germany (30%) Italy (9%) Denmark (4%)
Germany (73%) Switzerland (21%)
		Germany (52%) Denmark (11%) Switzerland (10%)
Denmark (32%) Serbia (30%) Slovenia (23%) England (15%)
						Spain (18%) Germany (18%) Portugal (16%) France (10%) Netherlands (9%)
Portugal (76%) Turkey (19%)
		Portugal (51%) Croatia (10%) Turkey (7%)
Croatia (19%) Hungary (14%) Italy (13%) Serbia (11%) Scotland (9%)
				Portugal (28%) Netherlands (16%) France (15%) Belgium (10%)
Netherlands (43%) France (30%) Austria (21%)
		Netherlands (30%) France (23%) Belgium (18%) Austria (12%)
Belgium (35%) Romania (31%) Slovakia (22%)
								France (22%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) England (9%)
Slovakia (41%) Romania (29%) Belgium (22%)
		Belgium (14%) Slovakia (12%) Croatia (12%) Italy (8%) Austria (8%)
Croatia (16%) Austria (12%) Italy (11%) Serbia (10%) Slovenia (8%)
				France (37%) Netherlands (17%) Belgium (7%) Portugal (6%)
France (62%) Netherlands (33%)
		France (49%) Netherlands (23%) Turkey (9%)
Turkey (44%) Czechia (33%) Portugal (19%)
						France (25%) England (16%) Netherlands (10%) Croatia (8%)
England (77%) Denmark (13%)
		England (54%) Denmark (7%) Belgium (6%)
Romania (13%) Turkey (12%) Czechia (12%) Austria (11%) Belgium (10%)
				England (30%) Italy (14%) Croatia (11%) Spain (11%)
Switzerland (54%) Germany (22%) Scotland (16%)
		Italy (26%) Croatia (20%) Spain (18%) Switzerland (17%)
Italy (41%) Croatia (31%) Spain (26%)

What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
4	-	30%	30%	98.9%
3	0	7%	6%	91%
3	5-6	2.3%	1.9%	85%
3	4-5	3.5%	2.9%	81%
3	3-4	3.3%	2.5%	77%
3	5-7	1.8%	1.2%	68%
3	4-6	3.2%	2.0%	64%
3	3-5	3.2%	1.9%	59%
3	2-4	1.6%	< 1%	54%
3	4-7	2.2%	1.0%	46%
3	3-6	2.6%	1.1%	41%
3	2-5	1.5%	< 1%	37%
3	3-7	1.7%	< 1%	27%
3	-5	2.4%	< 1%	20%
2	-1	4.9%	< 1%	8%

Group E		point	2	3													4
		GD	-1	-5	3-7	2-5	3-6	4-7	2-4	3-5	4-6	5-7	3-4	4-5	5-6	0	-
	3rd	100%	1%	2%	1%	2%	3%	2%	1%	3%	3%	1%	3%	3%	2%	8%	43%
	3rd & Last 16	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	3%	2%	7%	43%
Romania	3rd	30%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	1%	2%	1%	4%	9%
	3rd & Last 16	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	4%	9%
Slovakia	3rd	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%
	3rd & Last 16	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%
Belgium	3rd	23%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	9%
	3rd & Last 16	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	9%
Ukraine	3rd	26%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%
	3rd & Last 16	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%
Group B		point	2	3													4
		GD	-1	-5	3-7	2-5	3-6	4-7	2-4	3-5	4-6	5-7	3-4	4-5	5-6	0	-
	3rd	100%	1%	3%	2%	3%	4%	3%	2%	4%	4%	2%	3%	3%	2%	3%	31%
	3rd & Last 16	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	3%	3%	1%	2%	3%	2%	3%	31%
Spain	3rd	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%
	3rd & Last 16	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%
Italy	3rd	32%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%
	3rd & Last 16	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%
Albania	3rd	15%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%
	3rd & Last 16	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%
Croatia	3rd	51%	< 1%	1%	1%	2%	2%	2%	< 1%	2%	2%	1%	< 1%	1%	1%	2%	15%
	3rd & Last 16	35%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	2%	15%
Group F		point	2	3													4
		GD	-1	-5	3-7	2-5	3-6	4-7	2-4	3-5	4-6	5-7	3-4	4-5	5-6	0	-
	3rd	100%	5%	3%	2%	< 1%	3%	3%	< 1%	4%	4%	3%	4%	6%	4%	8%	25%
	3rd & Last 16	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	2%	3%	2%	3%	5%	3%	7%	25%
Turkey	3rd	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	2%	3%	11%
	3rd & Last 16	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	1%	3%	11%
Portugal	3rd	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%
	3rd & Last 16	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%
Czechia	3rd	40%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	2%	3%	2%	4%	8%
	3rd & Last 16	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%	1%	4%	8%
Georgia	3rd	23%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%
	3rd & Last 16	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%
Group D		point	2	3													4
		GD	-1	-5	3-7	2-5	3-6	4-7	2-4	3-5	4-6	5-7	3-4	4-5	5-6	0	-
	3rd	100%	7%	2%	1%	2%	3%	2%	3%	4%	3%	1%	6%	4%	2%	7%	24%
	3rd & Last 16	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	2%	3%	2%	< 1%	4%	4%	2%	6%	24%
Netherlands	3rd	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%
	3rd & Last 16	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%
France	3rd	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%
	3rd & Last 16	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%
Poland	3rd	29%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	4%
	3rd & Last 16	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	2%	4%
Austria	3rd	44%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	2%	< 1%	5%	8%
	3rd & Last 16	28%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	1%	< 1%	5%	8%
Group A		point	2	3													4
		GD	-1	-5	3-7	2-5	3-6	4-7	2-4	3-5	4-6	5-7	3-4	4-5	5-6	0	-
	3rd	100%	< 1%	5%	3%	< 1%	3%	3%	< 1%	3%	4%	3%	1%	3%	2%	4%	27%
	3rd & Last 16	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	2%	2%	2%	< 1%	2%	2%	4%	27%
Germany	3rd	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%
	3rd & Last 16	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%
Switzerland	3rd	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	2%	6%
	3rd & Last 16	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	2%	6%
Hungary	3rd	43%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%	< 1%	2%	2%	2%	< 1%	1%	1%	2%	10%
	3rd & Last 16	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	1%	< 1%	1%	1%	2%	10%
Scotland	3rd	33%	< 1%	4%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%
	3rd & Last 16	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%
Group C		point	2	3													4
		GD	-1	-5	3-7	2-5	3-6	4-7	2-4	3-5	4-6	5-7	3-4	4-5	5-6	0	-
	3rd	100%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	2%	< 1%	12%	31%
	3rd & Last 16	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	1%	< 1%	11%	31%
England	3rd	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%
	3rd & Last 16	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%
Slovenia	3rd	32%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	12%
	3rd & Last 16	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	12%
Denmark	3rd	31%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	11%
	3rd & Last 16	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	11%
Serbia	3rd	30%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	2%	< 1%	5%	3%
	3rd & Last 16	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	1%	< 1%	4%	3%