PL. Matchday 3

Man City win premier league with 12 points on average in the simulations. Arsenal win the league in 10% of the simulations, while Liverpool get the silverware in 5% of the simulations.

Hot Teams
Brighton: 7 points in the last 3 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Liverpool: 9 points in the last 3 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Man City: 9 points in the last 3 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Aston Villa: 6 points in the last 3 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Brentford: 6 points in the last 3 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 0 points in the last 3 matches, 3.9 less than expected
Southampton: 0 points in the last 3 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 1 point in the last 3 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Leicester: 1 point in the last 3 matches, 2.3 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 3 matches, 1.7 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
9	Man City	89.3	+64	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
7	Arsenal	77.4	+41	< 1%	99.68%	99.29%	98.3%	95.9%	10%	< 1%	1.7%	97.8%
9	Liverpool	74.7	+36	< 1%	99.05%	98.1%	96.0%	91%	5%	< 1%	3.8%	95%
7	Newcastle	60.7	+10	< 1%	69%	58%	44%	27%	< 1%	10%	25%	38%
4	Chelsea	60.6	+15	< 1%	70%	58%	45%	28%	< 1%	8%	34%	39%
4	Tottenham	57.8	+11	< 1%	55%	43%	30%	16%	< 1%	10%	20%	35%
6	Aston Villa	57.7	+5	< 1%	53%	41%	28%	15%	< 1%	12%	23%	24%
7	Brighton	55.1	+3	< 1%	39%	28%	18%	9%	< 1%	11%	19%	15%
3	Man United	54.7	+2	< 1%	37%	26%	16%	8%	< 1%	11%	17%	22%
3	West Ham	50.6	-3	3.0%	19%	12%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	7%	11%	5%
6	Brentford	50.5	-6	3.0%	18%	12%	6%	2.6%	< 1%	8%	11%	5%
1	Crystal Palace	48.7	-5	4.9%	13%	8%	4.1%	1.6%	< 1%	7%	9%	3.3%
4	Fulham	48.5	-7	5%	12%	7%	3.9%	1.5%	< 1%	6%	8%	3.1%
5	Bournemouth	47.5	-10	6%	10%	6%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	4.2%	6%	2.3%
5	Forest	42.3	-19	21%	2.4%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	4.1%	< 1%
1	Wolves	41.0	-21	27%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	1.2%	< 1%
0	Everton	41.0	-21	27%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	1.4%	< 1%
1	Leicester	37.9	-23	43%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%
0	Southampton	31.8	-34	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Ipswich	30.9	-38	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	96.2%	69%	27%	4.2%	36%	11%	4.2%
Arsenal	42%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	27%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	32%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
West Ham	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Forest	2.8%
Wolves	< 1%	< 1%
Everton	1.3%	< 1%
Leicester	1.9%	< 1%
Southampton	< 1%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.94%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	68%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	66%
League cup winners	>99.99%	83%	77%
Sixth team	98.4%	91%	2.9%
Seventh team	86%	53%	2.7%
Eighth team	51%	9%	2.4%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 64 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 40
Most likely combo of teams in CL

7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
5%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
3.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

20%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
11%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
11%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
9%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
3.4%	Everton, Ipswich, Leicester
3.3%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
2.7%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.6%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
2.4%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
2.4%	Forest, Ipswich, Leicester