PL: Man City hosting Arsenal on Sunday

Saturday gives us two matches in the relegation race with Everton travelling to Leicester and Ipswich going to Southampton.

Sunday gives us a top match when Man City host Arsenal. Arsenal increase their title chances from 12 to 14% with a draw and almost triple their chances with a win (22%) compared with a loss (8%).

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 4 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 4 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 4 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 4 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Brighton: 8 points in the last 4 matches, 2.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 0 points in the last 4 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Southampton: 0 points in the last 4 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 4 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 4 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Leicester: 2 points in the last 4 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
12	Man City	89.7	+62	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
10	Arsenal	78.8	+42	< 1%	99.83%	99.59%	98.9%	97.2%	12%	< 1%	1.2%	98.5%
9	Liverpool	72.3	+33	< 1%	98.0%	96.1%	92%	85%	2.6%	1.4%	7%	91%
10	Newcastle	62.2	+11	< 1%	75%	65%	50%	32%	< 1%	9%	26%	45%
7	Chelsea	62.1	+16	< 1%	76%	66%	51%	33%	< 1%	7%	33%	46%
9	Aston Villa	58.7	+5	< 1%	58%	45%	31%	17%	< 1%	12%	24%	27%
4	Tottenham	56.6	+11	< 1%	48%	36%	23%	12%	< 1%	11%	20%	29%
6	Man United	56.0	+4	< 1%	44%	32%	20%	10%	< 1%	11%	19%	25%
8	Brighton	53.8	+1	< 1%	32%	22%	13%	6%	< 1%	11%	17%	11%
4	West Ham	50.4	-3	2.7%	18%	11%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	7%	11%	4.8%
6	Brentford	50.2	-5	3.0%	17%	10%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	8%	11%	4.5%
5	Fulham	47.9	-8	5%	10%	6%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	6%	7%	2.3%
2	Crystal Palace	47.7	-6	6%	10%	6%	2.8%	1.0%	< 1%	6%	9%	2.3%
5	Bournemouth	46.3	-11	8%	7%	3.6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	4.4%	1.3%
8	Forest	44.8	-16	11%	4.5%	2.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	5%	< 1%
0	Everton	40.1	-21	30%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.1%	< 1%
1	Wolves	39.8	-22	31%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Leicester	38.1	-22	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
2	Ipswich	31.3	-37	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Southampton	30.7	-36	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	96.1%	67%	25%	3.3%	37%	8%	3.3%
Arsenal	44%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	26%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	33%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Forest	2.4%	< 1%			< 1%
Everton	< 1%	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%	< 1%
Leicester	2.8%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Arsenal (3.8%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Man City	89%	82%	74%
Arsenal	8%	14%	22%

	Man City			Arsenal			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
104	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
103	1.8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
102	2.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
101	4.0%	1.3%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
100	6%	1.8%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
99	8%	2.3%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-
98	11%	2.9%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
97	14%	3.5%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	19%	4.1%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	86%
95	23%	4.7%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	85%
94	28%	5%	99.0%	1.5%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	82%
93	34%	6%	98.4%	2.2%	< 1%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	72%
92	40%	6%	97.5%	3.1%	< 1%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	68%
91	46%	6%	96.5%	4.4%	1.3%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	61%
90	52%	6%	95%	6%	1.6%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	54%
89	58%	6%	93%	8%	2.0%	47%	1.0%	< 1%	46%
88	64%	6%	90%	11%	2.5%	40%	1.5%	< 1%	39%
87	70%	5%	86%	14%	3.0%	34%	2.2%	< 1%	33%
86	75%	5%	82%	17%	3.5%	28%	3.1%	< 1%	26%
85	79%	4.5%	77%	21%	4.0%	22%	4.3%	1.2%	20%
84	83%	4.0%	72%	26%	4.5%	18%	6%	1.5%	15%
83	87%	3.4%	65%	30%	4.9%	13%	8%	1.9%	11%
82	90%	2.9%	58%	36%	5%	10%	10%	2.3%	8%
81	92%	2.4%	51%	41%	5%	8%	13%	2.7%	6%
80	94%	2.0%	44%	47%	6%	5%	16%	3.2%	4%
79	95.5%	1.5%	37%	53%	6%	3.6%	19%	3.7%	2.4%
78	96.7%	1.2%	30%	58%	6%	2.4%	24%	4.2%	1.5%
77	97.6%	< 1%	23%	64%	5%	1.5%	28%	4.6%	< 1%
76	98.3%	< 1%	18%	69%	5%	< 1%	33%	4.9%	< 1%
75	98.8%	< 1%	12%	74%	4.8%	< 1%	38%	5%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Everton (3.3%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Leicester	68%	57%	51%
Everton	64%	70%	79%
Southampton vs Ipswich (2.4%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Ipswich	17%	21%	30%
Southampton	23%	16%	12%

	Southampton			Ipswich			Leicester			Wolves			Everton			Forest			Bournemouth			Crystal Palace			Fulham			Brentford			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
57	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	5%	1.3%	100%	8%	1.8%	100%	11%	2.4%	100%	12%	2.5%	100%	19%	3.5%	100%	20%	3.6%	100%
56	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	7%	1.6%	100%	10%	2.2%	100%	14%	2.8%	100%	15%	2.9%	100%	23%	3.9%	100%	24%	4.0%	100%
55	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	2.4%	< 1%	100%	9%	2.0%	100%	13%	2.6%	100%	18%	3.2%	100%	18%	3.4%	100%	28%	4.3%	100%	29%	4.5%	100%
54	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	2.9%	< 1%	100%	3.3%	< 1%	100%	11%	2.4%	100%	16%	3.1%	100%	21%	3.7%	100%	22%	3.8%	100%	32%	4.7%	100%	34%	4.9%	100%
53	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.2%	< 1%	100%	3.9%	1.0%	100%	4.4%	1.1%	100%	14%	2.8%	100%	19%	3.5%	100%	25%	4.1%	100%	26%	4.2%	100%	37%	5.0%	100%	39%	5%	100%
52	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.0%	< 1%	100%	5%	1.3%	100%	6%	1.4%	100%	17%	3.3%	100%	23%	4.0%	100%	30%	4.6%	100%	31%	4.6%	100%	43%	5%	100%	44%	5%	100%
51	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.1%	1.1%	100%	7%	1.6%	100%	8%	1.8%	100%	21%	3.7%	100%	28%	4.4%	100%	35%	4.9%	100%	36%	5.0%	100%	48%	5%	100%	49%	5%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	5%	1.4%	100%	9%	2.0%	100%	10%	2.2%	100%	25%	4.2%	100%	32%	4.8%	100%	40%	5%	100%	41%	5%	100%	53%	5%	100%	55%	5%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	7%	1.7%	100%	11%	2.4%	100%	12%	2.5%	100%	30%	4.6%	100%	37%	5%	100%	45%	5%	100%	46%	5%	100%	59%	5%	100%	60%	5%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	9%	2.1%	100%	14%	2.8%	100%	15%	3.0%	100%	35%	5.0%	100%	43%	5%	100%	51%	5%	100%	52%	5%	100%	64%	5%	100%	65%	5%	100%
47	1.2%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	12%	2.5%	100%	17%	3.3%	100%	19%	3.5%	100%	40%	5%	>99.99%	48%	5%	>99.99%	56%	5%	100%	57%	5%	100%	69%	5.0%	100%	70%	4.9%	100%
46	1.7%	< 1%	99.9%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	15%	2.9%	>99.99%	21%	3.7%	>99.99%	23%	3.9%	99.99%	46%	5%	>99.99%	54%	6%	>99.99%	61%	5%	100%	62%	5%	100%	73%	4.7%	100%	75%	4.6%	>99.99%
45	2.4%	< 1%	99.9%	2.8%	< 1%	99.9%	18%	3.4%	99.9%	25%	4.2%	99.9%	27%	4.3%	99.96%	51%	6%	99.98%	59%	5%	>99.99%	67%	5%	99.99%	67%	5%	>99.99%	78%	4.3%	99.99%	79%	4.2%	>99.99%
44	3.3%	< 1%	99.7%	3.8%	1.0%	99.5%	22%	3.9%	99.8%	30%	4.6%	99.8%	32%	4.7%	99.8%	57%	6%	99.9%	65%	5%	99.9%	71%	4.8%	99.9%	72%	4.9%	99.9%	82%	3.9%	99.9%	83%	3.8%	99.9%
43	4.4%	1.1%	99%	5%	1.3%	98.8%	26%	4.3%	99.4%	35%	4.9%	99.4%	37%	5%	99.4%	62%	6%	99.6%	70%	5%	99.7%	76%	4.5%	99.7%	77%	4.4%	99.7%	85%	3.5%	99.8%	86%	3.3%	99.7%
42	6%	1.4%	97%	7%	1.7%	97%	31%	4.7%	98.2%	40%	5%	98.2%	42%	5%	98.2%	68%	5%	98.8%	74%	4.8%	98.9%	80%	4.1%	99.2%	81%	4.1%	99.2%	88%	3.0%	99.1%	89%	2.8%	99.3%
41	8%	1.8%	92%	9%	2.1%	93%	36%	5%	95.5%	45%	5%	96.1%	48%	5%	96.1%	73%	5.0%	97.0%	79%	4.3%	97.4%	84%	3.7%	97.9%	84%	3.6%	97.6%	91%	2.6%	97.6%	91%	2.4%	97.8%
40	10%	2.2%	85%	11%	2.5%	85%	41%	5%	91%	51%	6%	91%	53%	6%	91%	77%	4.6%	93%	83%	3.9%	94%	87%	3.2%	95%	88%	3.1%	95%	93%	2.1%	94%	93%	2.0%	95%
39	13%	2.7%	75%	14%	3.0%	74%	47%	6%	83%	57%	6%	84%	59%	5%	85%	81%	4.1%	87%	86%	3.4%	89%	90%	2.7%	90%	90%	2.7%	89%	95%	1.7%	88%	95.0%	1.6%	88%
38	16%	3.1%	61%	18%	3.4%	61%	53%	6%	73%	62%	5%	74%	64%	5%	75%	85%	3.7%	78%	89%	2.9%	80%	92%	2.3%	81%	93%	2.2%	81%	95.9%	1.4%	80%	96.3%	1.3%	81%
37	19%	3.7%	47%	22%	3.9%	47%	58%	6%	61%	67%	5%	62%	69%	5%	63%	88%	3.1%	67%	91%	2.5%	68%	94%	1.9%	70%	94%	1.8%	69%	97.1%	1.1%	68%	97.3%	1.0%	69%
36	24%	4.2%	33%	26%	4.5%	33%	64%	5%	48%	72%	5.0%	49%	74%	4.8%	50%	91%	2.7%	53%	94%	2.0%	55%	95.4%	1.5%	58%	95.8%	1.5%	57%	97.9%	< 1%	57%	98.1%	< 1%	54%
35	28%	4.6%	22%	31%	4.9%	22%	69%	5%	35%	77%	4.6%	37%	78%	4.4%	36%	93%	2.2%	41%	95.2%	1.6%	43%	96.6%	1.2%	45%	96.9%	1.1%	43%	98.5%	< 1%	40%	98.7%	< 1%	42%
34	33%	5%	13%	36%	5%	13%	74%	4.9%	24%	81%	4.2%	25%	82%	4.0%	26%	95%	1.8%	28%	96.5%	1.3%	29%	97.6%	< 1%	31%	97.8%	< 1%	31%	99.0%	< 1%	30%	99.09%	< 1%	29%
33	39%	5%	8%	42%	6%	7%	79%	4.5%	15%	85%	3.7%	16%	86%	3.5%	16%	96.3%	1.4%	20%	97.5%	< 1%	19%	98.3%	< 1%	20%	98.5%	< 1%	20%	99.33%	< 1%	19%	99.40%	< 1%	19%
32	44%	6%	3.9%	48%	6%	4.0%	83%	4.0%	9%	88%	3.2%	10%	89%	3.0%	10%	97.4%	1.1%	11%	98.2%	< 1%	12%	98.8%	< 1%	13%	99.0%	< 1%	12%	99.55%	< 1%	11%	99.61%	< 1%	11%
31	50%	6%	2.0%	54%	6%	1.9%	86%	3.5%	5%	91%	2.7%	6%	91%	2.6%	6%	98.2%	< 1%	7%	98.8%	< 1%	6%	99.20%	< 1%	8%	99.33%	< 1%	7%	99.71%	< 1%	7%	99.75%	< 1%	6%
30	56%	6%	< 1%	60%	6%	< 1%	89%	3.0%	2.5%	93%	2.3%	3%	93%	2.1%	3%	98.8%	< 1%	3%	99.19%	< 1%	3%	99.47%	< 1%	3%	99.57%	< 1%	4%	99.82%	< 1%	3%	99.85%	< 1%	5%
29	62%	6%	< 1%	65%	6%	< 1%	92%	2.5%	1.2%	95%	1.8%	1.4%	95.0%	1.7%	1.5%	99.20%	< 1%	1%	99.47%	< 1%	2%	99.66%	< 1%	2%	99.73%	< 1%	2%	99.89%	< 1%	1%	99.91%	< 1%	< 1%
28	68%	6%	< 1%	71%	5%	< 1%	94%	2.1%	< 1%	96.1%	1.4%	< 1%	96.4%	1.4%	< 1%	99.48%	< 1%	< 1%	99.66%	< 1%	< 1%	99.78%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%
27	73%	5%	< 1%	76%	5%	< 1%	95.5%	1.7%	< 1%	97.2%	1.1%	< 1%	97.4%	1.0%	< 1%	99.68%	< 1%	< 1%	99.79%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	99.90%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%
26	78%	4.8%	< 1%	81%	4.6%	< 1%	96.8%	1.3%	< 1%	98.0%	< 1%	< 1%	98.2%	< 1%	< 1%	99.81%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%
25	82%	4.3%	< 1%	85%	4.0%	< 1%	97.7%	< 1%	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%	< 1%	-	99.99%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	71%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	85%	79%
Sixth team	98.8%	92%	2.8%
Seventh team	88%	56%	2.8%
Eighth team	54%	10%	2.5%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 40

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Ham	40%	24%	36%	Chelsea
Aston Villa	61%	20%	18%	Wolves
Liverpool	72%	16%	12%	Bournemouth
Tottenham	58%	21%	21%	Brentford
Leicester	44%	24%	32%	Everton
Southampton	52%	23%	25%	Ipswich
Fulham	39%	24%	36%	Newcastle
Crystal Palace	45%	24%	31%	Man United
Brighton	58%	21%	20%	Forest
Man City	60%	21%	19%	Arsenal

Most likely combo of teams in CL

9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.3%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
4.2%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.4%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
3.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

19%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
14%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
13%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
4.7%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
3.4%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
3.3%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
3.2%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
3.1%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
2.9%	Everton, Ipswich, Leicester
2.3%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves