European tournaments

Simulations of the Champions League. Teams are sorted with respect to their median points and goal difference. The table also show how often teams reached the knockout stage (top 24), direct to R16 (top 8) et cetera.

Below also Europa League and Conference League and the probability for which countries win the extra CL slots.

Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
0	Man City	18	18-9	99.45%	96.0%	81%	96.7%	78%	59%	44%	22%
0	Real Madrid	16	18-14	96.7%	85%	59%	88%	62%	40%	24%	12%
0	Bayern	16	8-4	97.1%	86%	58%	84%	49%	25%	12%	6%
0	Arsenal	15	13-6	96.0%	82%	52%	84%	55%	33%	18%	9%
0	Dortmund	15	18-14	95.1%	80%	49%	78%	41%	19%	8%	4.0%
0	Inter	15	15-11	95.2%	80%	49%	83%	54%	32%	18%	9%
0	Barcelona	14	18-5	94%	78%	46%	77%	43%	21%	10%	4.8%
0	Leverkusen	14	23-15	93%	76%	45%	79%	48%	27%	14%	7%
0	Atalanta	14	15-10	92%	74%	41%	73%	38%	18%	7%	3.7%
0	Milan	13	16-13	88%	64%	30%	60%	25%	9%	3.2%	1.6%
0	Liverpool	13	15-14	85%	60%	28%	66%	37%	19%	9%	4.6%
0	Atletico	13	14-14	85%	59%	26%	58%	25%	10%	3.5%	1.8%
0	Stuttgart	13	12-12	85%	59%	26%	54%	21%	7%	2.1%	1.1%
0	RB Leipzig	12	19-11	83%	56%	25%	58%	27%	11%	4.3%	2.2%
0	PSV	12	16-15	79%	51%	21%	49%	19%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
0	Paris SG	12	13-12	79%	50%	21%	57%	30%	14%	6%	3.2%
0	Juventus	12	14-18	76%	46%	18%	49%	22%	9%	3.1%	1.6%
0	Aston Villa	11	12-8	75%	45%	17%	43%	15%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%
0	Girona	11	15-12	75%	44%	16%	44%	16%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
0	Sporting	11	15-13	74%	44%	17%	47%	20%	8%	2.6%	1.3%
0	Monaco	11	12-13	71%	39%	13%	38%	13%	4.0%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Bologna	11	10-12	68%	37%	12%	37%	13%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Benfica	10	16-15	65%	34%	11%	34%	11%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Lille	10	13-14	62%	31%	9%	33%	11%	3.6%	1.0%	< 1%
0	Celtic	10	11-16	57%	25%	6%	19%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Feyenoord	9	12-14	51%	22%	5%	23%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Brugge	9	5-10	46%	19%	4.4%	18%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Brest	9	10-16	45%	18%	4.2%	16%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Salzburg	9	8-16	44%	16%	3.4%	16%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Sparta Praha	9	9-18	44%	16%	3.4%	18%	4.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Dinamo Zagreb	7	14-21	27%	8%	1.3%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Sturm Graz	7	7-21	22%	6%	< 1%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Young Boys	7	10-27	21%	5%	< 1%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Shakhtar	6	5-13	16%	3.7%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Crvena Zvezda	6	7-17	16%	3.8%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Slovan Bratislava	4	12-29	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Simulations of the Europa League.

Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
0	Tottenham	16	15-12	96.2%	85%	61%	87%	59%	37%	23%	11%
0	Man United	15	15-9	95%	81%	54%	83%	53%	32%	18%	9%
0	Roma	14	20-7	93%	78%	49%	81%	53%	33%	20%	10%
0	Bilbao	14	18-8	93%	78%	49%	79%	48%	28%	15%	8%
0	Galatasaray	14	20-12	93%	77%	48%	74%	37%	17%	7%	3.7%
0	Porto	14	12-4	92%	76%	47%	80%	54%	34%	21%	11%
0	Lazio	14	20-14	92%	75%	46%	78%	50%	30%	17%	9%
0	Sociedad	14	13-10	90%	71%	41%	73%	43%	24%	12%	6%
0	Slavia Praha	14	17-15	90%	70%	40%	72%	42%	23%	12%	6%
0	Frankfurt	13	17-10	90%	69%	37%	67%	33%	15%	7%	3.3%
0	Lyon	13	13-11	85%	61%	31%	61%	30%	14%	6%	3.0%
0	Nice	13	10-8	84%	61%	31%	61%	30%	14%	6%	2.9%
0	Olympiakos	13	18-18	83%	59%	29%	58%	27%	11%	4.5%	2.2%
0	Anderlecht	12	15-12	81%	54%	24%	52%	22%	9%	3.1%	1.6%
0	Hoffenheim	12	12-10	79%	52%	23%	54%	26%	12%	5.0%	2.5%
0	PAOK	12	14-13	79%	51%	21%	48%	18%	6%	2.1%	1.0%
0	Fenerbahce	12	11-13	74%	48%	21%	52%	26%	12%	6%	2.8%
0	Ajax	11	12-11	71%	42%	16%	40%	14%	4.8%	1.5%	< 1%
0	St Gillis	11	10-9	70%	42%	17%	44%	19%	8%	2.9%	1.5%
0	Braga	11	16-16	70%	42%	16%	44%	19%	8%	3.0%	1.5%
0	M Tel Aviv	10	16-13	65%	35%	12%	33%	10%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Karabakh Agdam	10	14-13	63%	34%	11%	31%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Midtjylland	10	11-10	62%	34%	12%	33%	11%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Viktoria Plzen	10	11-13	58%	30%	10%	31%	12%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%
0	Twente	10	9-12	56%	28%	9%	29%	11%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Bodoe Glimt	10	11-16	55%	26%	8%	27%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Rangers	10	10-18	53%	25%	7%	25%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Alkmaar	10	10-18	53%	25%	8%	25%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Dynamo Kyiv	9	11-13	49%	20%	4.9%	19%	5.0%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Malmoe	9	7-9	48%	22%	6%	19%	4.7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Besiktas	8	9-14	36%	14%	3.3%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Ferencvaros	7	7-13	26%	9%	1.7%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Razgrad	7	6-13	25%	8%	1.6%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Elfsborg	7	10-18	24%	8%	1.5%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Steaua	7	10-18	23%	7%	1.2%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	RFS	3	4-14	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulatiosn of Conference League

Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
0	Chelsea	14	15-5	99.67%	96.7%	81%	98.3%	86%	70%	54%	27%
0	Betis	14	9-4	99.35%	95.2%	78%	96.0%	74%	49%	29%	14%
0	Fiorentina	13	18-4	99.33%	95%	77%	96.6%	78%	57%	37%	19%
0	Panathinaikos	12	15-7	97.6%	88%	58%	86%	48%	21%	8%	3.9%
0	Gent	12	9-9	96.0%	81%	47%	84%	51%	26%	11%	6%
0	Molde	11	13-6	95%	78%	45%	77%	38%	15%	4.9%	2.5%
0	Heidenheim	11	10-5	93%	75%	42%	83%	55%	32%	16%	8%
0	FC Kobenhavn	11	9-4	94%	76%	42%	80%	47%	24%	10%	5%
0	Cercle Brugge	10	12-4	90%	69%	36%	70%	34%	13%	4.1%	2.0%
0	Guimaraes	10	10-5	90%	67%	33%	73%	40%	19%	7%	3.7%
0	Rapid Wien	10	10-6	90%	66%	31%	64%	26%	9%	2.2%	1.1%
0	LASK	9	13-7	84%	55%	22%	55%	21%	7%	1.6%	< 1%
0	Omonia	9	11-5	83%	55%	22%	53%	19%	5%	1.2%	< 1%
0	Djurgarden	9	14-10	82%	55%	23%	54%	20%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
0	Bueyueksehir	9	12-9	83%	53%	21%	59%	26%	10%	3.1%	1.6%
0	Legia	9	9-6	81%	53%	21%	55%	22%	7%	1.9%	< 1%
0	Lugano	9	8-6	80%	51%	20%	51%	19%	6%	1.3%	< 1%
0	APOEL	9	7-8	77%	46%	15%	41%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Olimpija Ljubljana	8	11-7	75%	42%	13%	39%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
0	StGallen	8	6-4	73%	40%	12%	44%	16%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
0	Jagiellonia	8	10-9	72%	40%	12%	39%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Paphos	8	9-8	72%	39%	12%	40%	13%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Mlada Boleslav	7	13-13	63%	31%	9%	35%	11%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Hearts	7	8-9	60%	27%	7%	27%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
0	FK Astana	7	6-9	55%	23%	5%	23%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Shamrock	7	10-14	56%	23%	4.2%	13%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Celje	6	10-12	45%	16%	2.9%	16%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Backa Topola	6	5-10	40%	14%	2.6%	12%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Dinamo Minsk	6	9-15	38%	12%	2.0%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Noah	6	7-14	37%	12%	1.9%	10%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Vikingur	5	4-9	29%	9%	1.3%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Borac Banja Luka	4	7-9	26%	8%	1.3%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	HJK Helsinki	4	4-9	21%	5.0%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Petrocub	3	8-16	11%	2.2%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	The New Saints	3	9-18	10%	1.9%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Larne	3	3-16	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	71%	17.65	8.14	26.14
ESP	40%	15.97	7.14	25
ITA	29%	15.44	7.13	23.75
GER	22%	15.01	7	24.13
POR	21%	14.66	5.8	26.7
BEL	7%	13.42	5.6	24.4
CYP	3.1%	12.32	4.33	23.67
GRE	2.6%	12.31	4.88	22.13
CZE	1.8%	12.07	5.7	22.4
TUR	< 1%	11.35	4.1	20.7
UKR	< 1%	8.47	2.5	31
FRA	< 1%	10.29	3.79	19.5
SWE	< 1%	10.07	4.75	20.5
NED	< 1%	9.17	3.33	19.08
AUT	< 1%	8.44	3	18.9
DEN	< 1%	8.69	3.25	16.25
NOR	< 1%	8.87	4.13	16.63