Who wins the titles in England?

Four teams are still alive in four tournaments, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Man United. Man City are favorites to win silverware, winning a title in at least 90% of the simulations. Seven teams have a more than 10% chance to win at least a title.

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	90%	44%	7%		32%	7%
Arsenal	58%	14%	1.5%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	47%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	33%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	28%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	15%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Fulham	1.8%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	1.5%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Forest	3.7%
Crystal Palace	4.8%	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Leicester	1.5%
Wolves	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.2%	< 1%

 

PL: Leicester travels to Town and Crystal Palace play the Wolves

Two matches coming weekend that are crucial for the bottom of the league, as detailed below. Villa travels to North London for an important match in the race for CL (and other tournaments), as detailed below.

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Newcastle: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Ipswich: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
23	Man City	88.4	+55	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
18	Arsenal	77.9	+40	< 1%	99.86%	99.62%	98.9%	96.6%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	98.9%
22	Liverpool	77.9	+38	< 1%	99.85%	99.57%	98.8%	96.2%	10%	< 1%	1.0%	98.8%
17	Chelsea	65.9	+22	< 1%	91%	84%	72%	51%	< 1%	3.2%	21%	71%
18	Aston Villa	61.4	+10	< 1%	74%	61%	44%	22%	< 1%	10%	28%	44%
13	Tottenham	59.3	+18	< 1%	66%	51%	33%	15%	< 1%	10%	25%	43%
12	Newcastle	57.8	+8	< 1%	55%	40%	24%	10%	< 1%	14%	30%	23%
16	Brighton	53.8	-0	< 1%	30%	19%	10%	3.3%	< 1%	12%	19%	9%
11	Man United	52.1	-2	< 1%	22%	13%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	12%	14%	13%
12	Fulham	50.6	-3	1.3%	17%	9%	4.2%	1.3%	< 1%	8%	12%	4.1%
11	West Ham	49.0	-7	2.3%	11%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	9%	2.4%
13	Brentford	49.0	-7	2.2%	12%	6%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	9%	2.7%
12	Bournemouth	48.1	-8	2.9%	9%	4.7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	7%	1.8%
16	Forest	47.9	-10	2.8%	8%	4.2%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%	9%	1.6%
6	Crystal Palace	43.9	-10	9%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	4.8%	< 1%
9	Everton	41.6	-19	17%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.4%	< 1%
9	Leicester	38.4	-23	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%
2	Wolves	35.7	-25	50%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Ipswich	29.7	-37	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Southampton	25.4	-41	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Ipswich vs Leicester (3.4%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Leicester	61%	68%	77%
Ipswich	22%	14%	10%
Wolves vs Crystal Palace (3%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Wolves	59%	48%	41%
Crystal Palace	87%	91%	95%

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Aston Villa (2.9%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Aston Villa	37%	45%	55%
Tottenham	49%	40%	35%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Tottenham vs Aston Villa (2.6%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Aston Villa	66%	73%	81%
Tottenham	74%	65%	60%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Fulham vs Brentford (2.1%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Fulham	29%	21%	17%
Brentford	17%	20%	28%
Tottenham vs Aston Villa (2.1%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Tottenham	83%	76%	71%
Aston Villa	78%	82%	88%

 

 

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	31%	24%	45%	Arsenal
Ipswich	42%	24%	33%	Leicester
Liverpool	70%	17%	13%	Brighton
Forest	43%	24%	33%	West Ham
Southampton	37%	24%	39%	Everton
Bournemouth	15%	19%	66%	Man City
Wolves	40%	24%	35%	Crystal Palace
Tottenham	51%	23%	26%	Aston Villa
Man United	40%	24%	36%	Chelsea
Fulham	52%	23%	25%	Brentford

Most likely combo of teams in CL

18%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
16%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.5%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.9%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.3%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

35%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
20%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
10%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
6%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
6%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
2.4%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
1.7%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
1.7%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
1.6%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
1.5%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton

 

 

 

EL&ECL: Four teams virtually clinch knockout stage

Lazio, Tottenham, Bilbao and Anderlecht virtually (>99%) clinched a spot in the knockout-stage and are favorites to finish top-8. On average 15 points will be required to finish top-8 and secure a seeded spot in round of 16.

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Lazio	18	24-9	99.99%	99.14%	90%	97.5%	66%	42%	25%	12%
2	9	Tottenham	18	17-6	99.96%	98.7%	88%	97.2%	70%	47%	31%	16%
3	7	Bilbao	17	12-7	99.54%	95%	73%	91%	56%	31%	16%	8%
4	9	Anderlecht	16	12-8	99.59%	93%	63%	82%	34%	12%	4.2%	2.1%
5	7	Ajax	15	13-6	98.8%	88%	54%	76%	31%	11%	3.7%	1.8%
6	7	Galatasaray	14	19-12	97.8%	84%	47%	77%	39%	18%	7%	3.7%
7	6	Lyon	14	13-6	97.3%	82%	44%	78%	44%	22%	11%	5%
8	7	Frankfurt	14	20-16	97.8%	82%	43%	78%	43%	22%	11%	5%
9	6	Olympiakos	14	13-9	96.3%	79%	40%	69%	29%	11%	3.8%	1.9%
10	7	Bodoe Glimt	14	12-9	97.0%	80%	39%	65%	24%	8%	2.3%	1.1%
11	7	Midtjylland	14	11-11	95%	72%	32%	62%	24%	8%	2.7%	1.3%
12	3	Man United	13	17-10	95%	76%	35%	76%	47%	27%	15%	7%
13	4	Slavia Praha	13	13-8	93%	70%	29%	72%	42%	23%	12%	6%
14	4	Porto	13	16-13	92%	66%	26%	74%	47%	29%	17%	8%
15	4	Sociedad	13	10-11	90%	61%	20%	61%	30%	14%	6%	3.2%
16	4	Roma	12	10-7	87%	56%	18%	67%	42%	25%	15%	7%
17	5	Fenerbahce	12	10-12	81%	46%	14%	52%	24%	11%	4.6%	2.3%
18	4	Hoffenheim	11	10-9	79%	42%	11%	46%	19%	8%	2.9%	1.5%
19	6	Rangers	10	14-13	74%	34%	8%	33%	10%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	1	Nice	10	12-13	64%	27%	4.0%	38%	18%	9%	3.8%	1.9%
21	3	Alkmaar	10	11-15	59%	24%	4.5%	26%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
22	6	Steaua	10	7-11	63%	25%	4.7%	16%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Viktoria Plzen	9	11-12	54%	20%	3.3%	24%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
24	2	Twente	9	8-11	49%	16%	1.9%	22%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Braga	9	10-14	50%	17%	2.4%	25%	10%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%
26	3	Malmoe	9	7-13	45%	14%	1.8%	15%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	1	St Gillis	8	6-9	37%	10%	< 1%	17%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Besiktas	8	9-13	38%	11%	1.3%	11%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	3	Elfsborg	8	13-19	35%	8%	< 1%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	Ferencvaros	8	10-16	35%	9%	< 1%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	PAOK	8	13-20	32%	7%	< 1%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Dynamo Kyiv	7	6-12	23%	4.0%	< 1%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	M Tel Aviv	6	11-12	21%	3.8%	< 1%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Karabakh Agdam	6	7-16	13%	2.2%	< 1%	4.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Razgrad	5	5-12	10%	1.1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	RFS	3	6-14	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	15-14	13	11-6	17	15-10
5%	10	9-10	13	12-10	16	16-8
25%	10	9-16	12	14-10	16	14-12
50%	9	11-13	12	10-9	15	15-10
75%	9	7-12	11	14-9	14	19-11
95%	8	8-11	11	9-9	14	12-9
99%	8	11-18	11	7-13	13	16-10

Europa Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Chelsea	16	18-5	>99.99%	99.93%	98.0%	99.89%	91%	77%	63%	32%
2	6	Fiorentina	15	15-6	99.96%	98.8%	89%	98.7%	81%	58%	37%	19%
3	6	Rapid Wien	13	13-9	99.50%	93%	66%	87%	41%	14%	3.6%	1.8%
4	6	Legia	13	11-7	99.43%	92%	62%	85%	40%	13%	3.4%	1.7%
5	6	Heidenheim	13	11-7	99.33%	92%	65%	93%	66%	40%	20%	10%
6	6	Guimaraes	13	11-7	99.15%	91%	62%	90%	55%	27%	11%	5%
7	3	Gent	12	14-7	99.0%	90%	56%	90%	59%	32%	14%	7%
8	6	Jagiellonia	12	10-7	98.0%	83%	47%	75%	30%	8%	1.8%	< 1%
9	6	Lugano	12	11-9	98.0%	82%	44%	75%	30%	9%	2.0%	1.0%
10	1	Betis	11	9-4	97.3%	81%	33%	86%	58%	36%	18%	9%
11	3	Molde	10	17-9	95.2%	76%	35%	76%	38%	16%	5%	2.6%
12	3	Cercle Brugge	10	14-11	91%	64%	25%	67%	31%	12%	3.5%	1.8%
13	1	Panathinaikos	10	11-8	93%	65%	18%	67%	31%	13%	4.0%	2.0%
14	6	Hearts	10	8-8	94%	61%	19%	49%	12%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
15	3	Olimpija Ljubljana	9	14-6	91%	58%	18%	52%	15%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
16	1	FC Kobenhavn	9	9-5	86%	52%	13%	66%	35%	17%	7%	3.4%
17	3	Omonia	9	10-9	83%	46%	13%	50%	17%	5%	1.1%	< 1%
18	3	Paphos	9	11-12	81%	41%	9%	46%	15%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%
19	1	Djurgarden	8	8-7	73%	35%	7%	40%	13%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	4	Shamrock	8	10-10	81%	36%	3.9%	19%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Borac Banja Luka	8	11-14	68%	29%	6%	17%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	Celje	7	13-11	72%	28%	4.5%	27%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Noah	7	9-10	64%	23%	2.7%	19%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	1	LASK	7	11-13	59%	19%	1.4%	28%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Vikingur	7	8-14	49%	15%	1.8%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	StGallen	6	13-15	44%	10%	< 1%	22%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	FK Astana	6	4-9	36%	9%	1.0%	14%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Bueyueksehir	6	8-16	30%	7%	< 1%	17%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	APOEL	5	9-11	38%	8%	< 1%	16%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	The New Saints	5	7-10	27%	6%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	HJK Helsinki	5	5-9	21%	3.8%	< 1%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Mlada Boleslav	4	2-8	14%	2.4%	< 1%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Backa Topola	4	6-19	9%	1.1%	< 1%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Dinamo Minsk	3	7-11	8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Petrocub	1	4-13	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Larne	1	3-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	8-9	10	12-7	13	16-6
5%	7	14-13	10	10-7	13	13-6
25%	7	8-10	10	8-8	13	11-8
50%	7	6-10	9	14-11	12	10-4
75%	6	10-10	9	7-6	12	13-11
95%	6	3-7	8	11-7	11	11-7
99%	6	5-14	8	12-12	10	15-7

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95.9%	19.8	11.57	27.86
POR	31%	15.29	7.2	26.1
ITA	29%	15.3	8.13	23.63
GER	20%	14.84	8.06	23.63
ESP	15%	14.37	6.79	23.14
BEL	4.5%	13.08	6.2	23.4
CYP	1.3%	11.33	5.33	23
FRA	< 1%	11.53	5.36	21
CZE	< 1%	11.4	6.5	21.2
GRE	< 1%	10.87	4.88	20.38
TUR	< 1%	10.56	5.1	20.2
NED	< 1%	10.02	4.67	20.58
SWE	< 1%	9.76	5.5	20.75
UKR	< 1%	6.99	2.5	21
NOR	< 1%	10.06	5.38	17.13
DEN	< 1%	9.25	4.5	16.75

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 266 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	36%	35%	14%	1.9%
Chance	< 1%	10%	41%	80%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 227 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	1.9%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	17%	45%	75%	93%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 213 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	41%	25%	4.4%
Chance	< 1%	5%	27%	60%	87%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 208 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	42%	14%	1.8%
Chance	8%	35%	76%	98%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	8%	28%	36%	21%	5%	< 1%
Chance	1.6%	8%	26%	56%	85%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 198 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	9%	24%	33%	23%	8%	1.5%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	13%	36%	66%	89%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 178 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.6%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3.4%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	15%	43%	75%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 174 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	15%	36%	32%	13%	2.6%
Chance	1.1%	7%	24%	54%	84%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 164 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	19%	39%	30%	11%	1.6%
Chance	< 1%	4.7%	21%	53%	86%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 149 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	3.4%	16%	35%	33%	11%	< 1%
Chance	< 1%	4.7%	18%	41%	66%	85%