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Two matches coming weekend that are crucial for the bottom of the league, as detailed below. Villa travels to North London for an important match in the race for CL (and other tournaments), as detailed below.
Hot Teams
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected
Cold Teams
Newcastle: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Ipswich: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 23 | Man City | 88.4 | +55 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.95% | 80% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 18 | Arsenal | 77.9 | +40 | < 1% | 99.86% | 99.62% | 98.9% | 96.6% | 10% | < 1% | < 1% | 98.9% |
| 22 | Liverpool | 77.9 | +38 | < 1% | 99.85% | 99.57% | 98.8% | 96.2% | 10% | < 1% | 1.0% | 98.8% |
| 17 | Chelsea | 65.9 | +22 | < 1% | 91% | 84% | 72% | 51% | < 1% | 3.2% | 21% | 71% |
| 18 | Aston Villa | 61.4 | +10 | < 1% | 74% | 61% | 44% | 22% | < 1% | 10% | 28% | 44% |
| 13 | Tottenham | 59.3 | +18 | < 1% | 66% | 51% | 33% | 15% | < 1% | 10% | 25% | 43% |
| 12 | Newcastle | 57.8 | +8 | < 1% | 55% | 40% | 24% | 10% | < 1% | 14% | 30% | 23% |
| 16 | Brighton | 53.8 | -0 | < 1% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 3.3% | < 1% | 12% | 19% | 9% |
| 11 | Man United | 52.1 | -2 | < 1% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 1.9% | < 1% | 12% | 14% | 13% |
| 12 | Fulham | 50.6 | -3 | 1.3% | 17% | 9% | 4.2% | 1.3% | < 1% | 8% | 12% | 4.1% |
| 11 | West Ham | 49.0 | -7 | 2.3% | 11% | 6% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | 9% | 2.4% |
| 13 | Brentford | 49.0 | -7 | 2.2% | 12% | 6% | 2.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | 9% | 2.7% |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 48.1 | -8 | 2.9% | 9% | 4.7% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 5% | 7% | 1.8% |
| 16 | Forest | 47.9 | -10 | 2.8% | 8% | 4.2% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.8% | 9% | 1.6% |
| 6 | Crystal Palace | 43.9 | -10 | 9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | < 1% |
| 9 | Everton | 41.6 | -19 | 17% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| 9 | Leicester | 38.4 | -23 | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.7% | < 1% |
| 2 | Wolves | 35.7 | -25 | 50% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 4 | Ipswich | 29.7 | -37 | 84% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 1 | Southampton | 25.4 | -41 | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Ipswich vs Leicester (3.4%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Leicester | 61% | 68% | 77% |
| Ipswich | 22% | 14% | 10% |
| Wolves vs Crystal Palace (3%) | Home Win (40%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (35%) |
| Wolves | 59% | 48% | 41% |
| Crystal Palace | 87% | 91% | 95% |
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Tottenham vs Aston Villa (2.9%) | Home Win (51%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (26%) |
| Aston Villa | 37% | 45% | 55% |
| Tottenham | 49% | 40% | 35% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Tottenham vs Aston Villa (2.6%) | Home Win (51%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (26%) |
| Aston Villa | 66% | 73% | 81% |
| Tottenham | 74% | 65% | 60% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Fulham vs Brentford (2.1%) | Home Win (52%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (25%) |
| Fulham | 29% | 21% | 17% |
| Brentford | 17% | 20% | 28% |
| Tottenham vs Aston Villa (2.1%) | Home Win (51%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (26%) |
| Tottenham | 83% | 76% | 71% |
| Aston Villa | 78% | 82% | 88% |
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Newcastle | 31% | 24% | 45% | Arsenal |
| Ipswich | 42% | 24% | 33% | Leicester |
| Liverpool | 70% | 17% | 13% | Brighton |
| Forest | 43% | 24% | 33% | West Ham |
| Southampton | 37% | 24% | 39% | Everton |
| Bournemouth | 15% | 19% | 66% | Man City |
| Wolves | 40% | 24% | 35% | Crystal Palace |
| Tottenham | 51% | 23% | 26% | Aston Villa |
| Man United | 40% | 24% | 36% | Chelsea |
| Fulham | 52% | 23% | 25% | Brentford |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 18% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 16% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 9% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 4.3% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.5% | Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 3.3% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 2.9% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham |
| 2.3% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.9% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 35% | Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves |
| 20% | Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton |
| 10% | Everton, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 6% | Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 6% | Leicester, Southampton, Wolves |
| 2.4% | Everton, Southampton, Wolves |
| 1.7% | Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 1.7% | Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves |
| 1.6% | Forest, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 1.5% | Everton, Leicester, Southampton |
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