EL&ECL: Four teams virtually clinch knockout stage

Lazio, Tottenham, Bilbao and Anderlecht virtually (>99%) clinched a spot in the knockout-stage and are favorites to finish top-8. On average 15 points will be required to finish top-8 and secure a seeded spot in round of 16.

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Lazio	18	24-9	99.99%	99.14%	90%	97.5%	66%	42%	25%	12%
2	9	Tottenham	18	17-6	99.96%	98.7%	88%	97.2%	70%	47%	31%	16%
3	7	Bilbao	17	12-7	99.54%	95%	73%	91%	56%	31%	16%	8%
4	9	Anderlecht	16	12-8	99.59%	93%	63%	82%	34%	12%	4.2%	2.1%
5	7	Ajax	15	13-6	98.8%	88%	54%	76%	31%	11%	3.7%	1.8%
6	7	Galatasaray	14	19-12	97.8%	84%	47%	77%	39%	18%	7%	3.7%
7	6	Lyon	14	13-6	97.3%	82%	44%	78%	44%	22%	11%	5%
8	7	Frankfurt	14	20-16	97.8%	82%	43%	78%	43%	22%	11%	5%
9	6	Olympiakos	14	13-9	96.3%	79%	40%	69%	29%	11%	3.8%	1.9%
10	7	Bodoe Glimt	14	12-9	97.0%	80%	39%	65%	24%	8%	2.3%	1.1%
11	7	Midtjylland	14	11-11	95%	72%	32%	62%	24%	8%	2.7%	1.3%
12	3	Man United	13	17-10	95%	76%	35%	76%	47%	27%	15%	7%
13	4	Slavia Praha	13	13-8	93%	70%	29%	72%	42%	23%	12%	6%
14	4	Porto	13	16-13	92%	66%	26%	74%	47%	29%	17%	8%
15	4	Sociedad	13	10-11	90%	61%	20%	61%	30%	14%	6%	3.2%
16	4	Roma	12	10-7	87%	56%	18%	67%	42%	25%	15%	7%
17	5	Fenerbahce	12	10-12	81%	46%	14%	52%	24%	11%	4.6%	2.3%
18	4	Hoffenheim	11	10-9	79%	42%	11%	46%	19%	8%	2.9%	1.5%
19	6	Rangers	10	14-13	74%	34%	8%	33%	10%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	1	Nice	10	12-13	64%	27%	4.0%	38%	18%	9%	3.8%	1.9%
21	3	Alkmaar	10	11-15	59%	24%	4.5%	26%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
22	6	Steaua	10	7-11	63%	25%	4.7%	16%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Viktoria Plzen	9	11-12	54%	20%	3.3%	24%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
24	2	Twente	9	8-11	49%	16%	1.9%	22%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Braga	9	10-14	50%	17%	2.4%	25%	10%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%
26	3	Malmoe	9	7-13	45%	14%	1.8%	15%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	1	St Gillis	8	6-9	37%	10%	< 1%	17%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Besiktas	8	9-13	38%	11%	1.3%	11%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	3	Elfsborg	8	13-19	35%	8%	< 1%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	Ferencvaros	8	10-16	35%	9%	< 1%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	PAOK	8	13-20	32%	7%	< 1%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Dynamo Kyiv	7	6-12	23%	4.0%	< 1%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	M Tel Aviv	6	11-12	21%	3.8%	< 1%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Karabakh Agdam	6	7-16	13%	2.2%	< 1%	4.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Razgrad	5	5-12	10%	1.1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	RFS	3	6-14	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	15-14	13	11-6	17	15-10
5%	10	9-10	13	12-10	16	16-8
25%	10	9-16	12	14-10	16	14-12
50%	9	11-13	12	10-9	15	15-10
75%	9	7-12	11	14-9	14	19-11
95%	8	8-11	11	9-9	14	12-9
99%	8	11-18	11	7-13	13	16-10

Europa Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Chelsea	16	18-5	>99.99%	99.93%	98.0%	99.89%	91%	77%	63%	32%
2	6	Fiorentina	15	15-6	99.96%	98.8%	89%	98.7%	81%	58%	37%	19%
3	6	Rapid Wien	13	13-9	99.50%	93%	66%	87%	41%	14%	3.6%	1.8%
4	6	Legia	13	11-7	99.43%	92%	62%	85%	40%	13%	3.4%	1.7%
5	6	Heidenheim	13	11-7	99.33%	92%	65%	93%	66%	40%	20%	10%
6	6	Guimaraes	13	11-7	99.15%	91%	62%	90%	55%	27%	11%	5%
7	3	Gent	12	14-7	99.0%	90%	56%	90%	59%	32%	14%	7%
8	6	Jagiellonia	12	10-7	98.0%	83%	47%	75%	30%	8%	1.8%	< 1%
9	6	Lugano	12	11-9	98.0%	82%	44%	75%	30%	9%	2.0%	1.0%
10	1	Betis	11	9-4	97.3%	81%	33%	86%	58%	36%	18%	9%
11	3	Molde	10	17-9	95.2%	76%	35%	76%	38%	16%	5%	2.6%
12	3	Cercle Brugge	10	14-11	91%	64%	25%	67%	31%	12%	3.5%	1.8%
13	1	Panathinaikos	10	11-8	93%	65%	18%	67%	31%	13%	4.0%	2.0%
14	6	Hearts	10	8-8	94%	61%	19%	49%	12%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
15	3	Olimpija Ljubljana	9	14-6	91%	58%	18%	52%	15%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
16	1	FC Kobenhavn	9	9-5	86%	52%	13%	66%	35%	17%	7%	3.4%
17	3	Omonia	9	10-9	83%	46%	13%	50%	17%	5%	1.1%	< 1%
18	3	Paphos	9	11-12	81%	41%	9%	46%	15%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%
19	1	Djurgarden	8	8-7	73%	35%	7%	40%	13%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	4	Shamrock	8	10-10	81%	36%	3.9%	19%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Borac Banja Luka	8	11-14	68%	29%	6%	17%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	Celje	7	13-11	72%	28%	4.5%	27%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Noah	7	9-10	64%	23%	2.7%	19%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	1	LASK	7	11-13	59%	19%	1.4%	28%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Vikingur	7	8-14	49%	15%	1.8%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	StGallen	6	13-15	44%	10%	< 1%	22%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	FK Astana	6	4-9	36%	9%	1.0%	14%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Bueyueksehir	6	8-16	30%	7%	< 1%	17%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	APOEL	5	9-11	38%	8%	< 1%	16%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	The New Saints	5	7-10	27%	6%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	HJK Helsinki	5	5-9	21%	3.8%	< 1%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Mlada Boleslav	4	2-8	14%	2.4%	< 1%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Backa Topola	4	6-19	9%	1.1%	< 1%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Dinamo Minsk	3	7-11	8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Petrocub	1	4-13	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Larne	1	3-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	8-9	10	12-7	13	16-6
5%	7	14-13	10	10-7	13	13-6
25%	7	8-10	10	8-8	13	11-8
50%	7	6-10	9	14-11	12	10-4
75%	6	10-10	9	7-6	12	13-11
95%	6	3-7	8	11-7	11	11-7
99%	6	5-14	8	12-12	10	15-7

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95.9%	19.8	11.57	27.86
POR	31%	15.29	7.2	26.1
ITA	29%	15.3	8.13	23.63
GER	20%	14.84	8.06	23.63
ESP	15%	14.37	6.79	23.14
BEL	4.5%	13.08	6.2	23.4
CYP	1.3%	11.33	5.33	23
FRA	< 1%	11.53	5.36	21
CZE	< 1%	11.4	6.5	21.2
GRE	< 1%	10.87	4.88	20.38
TUR	< 1%	10.56	5.1	20.2
NED	< 1%	10.02	4.67	20.58
SWE	< 1%	9.76	5.5	20.75
UKR	< 1%	6.99	2.5	21
NOR	< 1%	10.06	5.38	17.13
DEN	< 1%	9.25	4.5	16.75

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 266 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	36%	35%	14%	1.9%
Chance	< 1%	10%	41%	80%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 227 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	1.9%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	17%	45%	75%	93%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 213 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	41%	25%	4.4%
Chance	< 1%	5%	27%	60%	87%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 208 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	42%	14%	1.8%
Chance	8%	35%	76%	98%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	8%	28%	36%	21%	5%	< 1%
Chance	1.6%	8%	26%	56%	85%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 198 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	9%	24%	33%	23%	8%	1.5%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	13%	36%	66%	89%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 178 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.6%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3.4%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	15%	43%	75%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 174 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	15%	36%	32%	13%	2.6%
Chance	1.1%	7%	24%	54%	84%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 164 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	19%	39%	30%	11%	1.6%
Chance	< 1%	4.7%	21%	53%	86%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 149 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	3.4%	16%	35%	33%	11%	< 1%
Chance	< 1%	4.7%	18%	41%	66%	85%