Champions League: Three English teams in top in projected table.

In the simulations three English teams finish in the top most often and Premier League win the bonus spot in >95% of the simulations.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Liverpool	18	14-7	99.85%	95.9%	77%	93%	59%	33%	17%	8%
2	7	Man City	17	22-7	99.86%	96.7%	79%	96.7%	77%	58%	43%	21%
3	7	Arsenal	16	20-5	99.59%	93%	64%	91%	62%	39%	23%	11%
4	6	Dortmund	16	24-11	99.57%	94%	69%	88%	47%	21%	9%	4.3%
5	7	Leverkusen	16	13-3	99.48%	92%	62%	89%	56%	31%	16%	8%
6	7	Inter	16	11-3	99.0%	89%	57%	88%	57%	33%	18%	9%
7	9	Aston Villa	16	13-6	99.45%	90%	60%	80%	34%	12%	3.6%	1.8%
8	6	Real Madrid	15	19-10	98.7%	85%	50%	86%	56%	34%	19%	9%
9	6	Barcelona	15	17-11	97.5%	80%	43%	76%	39%	18%	7%	3.6%
10	7	Sporting	14	10-6	95.2%	70%	30%	67%	30%	12%	4.6%	2.3%
11	4	Stuttgart	14	10-9	93%	65%	24%	58%	22%	8%	2.4%	1.2%
12	3	Bayern	13	23-12	95%	70%	29%	73%	40%	21%	10%	5.0%
13	5	Atalanta	13	11-4	94%	62%	22%	63%	29%	12%	4.8%	2.4%
14	6	Lille	13	11-8	93%	61%	21%	53%	18%	6%	1.5%	< 1%
15	7	Monaco	13	15-13	92%	56%	18%	53%	19%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
16	6	Juventus	13	13-11	90%	57%	20%	60%	27%	11%	4.2%	2.1%
17	3	Milan	12	19-12	88%	51%	12%	51%	20%	7%	2.5%	1.2%
18	7	Brest	12	17-13	88%	50%	15%	39%	9%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
19	6	Benfica	12	14-14	83%	41%	11%	43%	15%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%
20	6	Feyenoord	12	12-13	84%	41%	10%	37%	10%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Paris SG	11	13-11	78%	37%	9%	53%	27%	14%	6%	3.2%
22	2	PSV	11	11-11	71%	28%	4.4%	34%	12%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
23	4	Celtic	11	14-17	70%	27%	4.9%	21%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	3	Atletico	11	8-13	67%	24%	3.7%	34%	13%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%
25	4	Sparta Praha	10	9-16	52%	14%	2.0%	18%	4.4%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Girona	8	13-15	37%	8%	< 1%	13%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	RB Leipzig	8	6-8	34%	6%	< 1%	17%	7%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Brugge	8	9-16	29%	5%	< 1%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Dinamo Zagreb	8	9-17	32%	6%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Bologna	7	6-9	25%	4.4%	< 1%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	Shakhtar	5	5-12	7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Young Boys	4	4-17	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Crvena Zvezda	4	8-22	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Sturm Graz	3	5-16	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Salzburg	3	5-20	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	3	3-22	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	12-12	14	15-11	17	18-8
5%	11	14-20	14	12-19	17	15-10
25%	10	11-13	13	12-9	16	21-14
50%	10	13-21	13	11-12	16	13-10
75%	9	7-9	12	9-5	15	20-13
95%	8	13-15	12	10-13	14	18-7
99%	8	7-13	11	15-14	14	13-8

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95.2%	19.67	10.36	26.93
POR	32%	15.26	6.6	28.1
ITA	25%	15.04	7.5	23.63
GER	20%	14.81	7.63	22.56
ESP	12%	14.02	6.57	23.36
BEL	6%	13.37	6	25.4
CYP	5%	12.87	5.67	23.67
FRA	1.7%	12.1	5.93	20.93
CZE	1.3%	11.9	6.5	21.7
GRE	< 1%	10.75	4.63	21.25
TUR	< 1%	10.49	4.7	19.7
SWE	< 1%	10.57	5.75	19.63
NED	< 1%	10.1	4.5	19.33
UKR	< 1%	7.2	2.5	23.25
NOR	< 1%	9.73	4.88	17.63
DEN	< 1%	8.76	3.75	16.25

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 285 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	15%	37%	33%	13%	2.0%
Chance	< 1%	12%	45%	83%	98.2%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 239 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	< 1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	6%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	5%	28%	62%	87%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 221 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	6%	21%	34%	26%	10%	1.7%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	14%	40%	71%	92%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 219 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	41%	13%	1.7%
Chance	9%	38%	80%	98.7%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 202 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.3%	9%	24%	32%	23%	8%	1.5%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	13%	36%	66%	89%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 195 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	< 1%
Chance	1.1%	6%	22%	51%	83%	97%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 178 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	37%	32%	13%	2.6%
Chance	1.1%	7%	24%	55%	84%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 159 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.8%	15%	32%	32%	15%	2.9%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	12%	38%	72%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 150 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	4.5%	18%	35%	31%	10%	< 1%
Chance	< 1%	3.6%	16%	38%	63%	84%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 145 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	19%	39%	30%	10%	1.5%
Chance	< 1%	3.2%	16%	46%	83%