PL: Chelsea vs Newcastle in Sunday clash

On Sunday Chelsea host Newcastle in an important match for the CL race.

Hot Teams
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Leicester: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Everton: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Aston Villa: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Newcastle: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Ipswich: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
20	Man City	88.1	+57	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.92%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
17	Arsenal	78.8	+41	< 1%	99.87%	99.63%	98.9%	96.7%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	98.9%
21	Liverpool	77.8	+38	< 1%	99.80%	99.41%	98.4%	95.4%	10%	< 1%	1.4%	98.3%
14	Chelsea	64.7	+22	< 1%	86%	77%	63%	41%	< 1%	4.6%	28%	61%
17	Aston Villa	62.4	+11	< 1%	77%	64%	47%	26%	< 1%	10%	28%	46%
13	Tottenham	60.6	+19	< 1%	70%	56%	38%	19%	< 1%	10%	25%	46%
12	Newcastle	58.7	+8	< 1%	58%	42%	26%	12%	< 1%	14%	30%	25%
15	Brighton	54.7	+1	< 1%	34%	21%	11%	4.2%	< 1%	13%	20%	10%
11	Man United	53.2	-1	< 1%	26%	15%	8%	2.7%	< 1%	13%	15%	14%
11	Fulham	50.8	-3	1.3%	16%	9%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	8%	12%	3.9%
10	Brentford	48.1	-7	3.3%	9%	4.7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	7%	1.9%
11	Bournemouth	47.9	-8	3.3%	8%	4.1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	6%	1.6%
8	West Ham	47.6	-8	3.8%	8%	3.8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	5.0%	7%	1.4%
13	Forest	46.1	-13	6%	4.7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	7%	< 1%
3	Crystal Palace	42.3	-10	15%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	3.9%	< 1%
8	Everton	42.2	-19	16%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	1.5%	< 1%
9	Leicester	40.0	-21	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	1.9%	< 1%
1	Wolves	35.5	-26	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Ipswich	30.5	-37	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Southampton	25.5	-43	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%