PL: Palace and Wolves with the weakest start of season

 

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Chelsea: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Aston Villa: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Newcastle: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Man United: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected
Everton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
17	Man City	87.4	+58	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.89%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
17	Arsenal	80.7	+44	< 1%	99.94%	99.82%	99.44%	98.1%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	99.39%
18	Liverpool	76.8	+38	< 1%	99.69%	99.16%	97.7%	94%	9%	< 1%	2.0%	97.6%
14	Chelsea	65.6	+22	< 1%	89%	81%	68%	47%	< 1%	3.9%	25%	66%
12	Newcastle	60.7	+10	< 1%	70%	55%	37%	19%	< 1%	12%	31%	36%
14	Aston Villa	60.7	+9	< 1%	69%	55%	37%	18%	< 1%	12%	29%	37%
10	Tottenham	59.6	+17	< 1%	66%	51%	33%	16%	< 1%	10%	25%	42%
12	Brighton	52.6	-1	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	12%	16%	7%
11	Fulham	52.3	-1	< 1%	24%	14%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	10%	16%	6%
8	Man United	52.1	-2	< 1%	22%	13%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	12%	14%	13%
10	Brentford	49.0	-7	2.6%	12%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	9%	2.7%
8	West Ham	48.4	-6	3.0%	10%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	8%	2.1%
8	Bournemouth	45.8	-11	6%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	4.3%	< 1%
10	Forest	44.6	-14	9%	3.6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	6%	< 1%
3	Crystal Palace	43.5	-10	11%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	4.8%	< 1%
5	Everton	40.6	-21	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
6	Leicester	38.3	-22	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
1	Wolves	36.1	-26	47%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Ipswich	31.8	-35	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Southampton	27.0	-41	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	90%	53%	16%	1.7%	28%	6%	1.7%
Arsenal	55%	14%	1.7%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	35%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	36%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	21%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.8%	< 1%			< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brentford	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	1.5%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Forest	3.7%	< 1%			< 1%
Crystal Palace	3.9%	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Leicester	1.8%	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.0%	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	92%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	86%	79%
Sixth team	99.63%	97.7%	3.7%
Seventh team	94%	70%	3.3%
Eighth team	66%	11%	2.8%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39
Most likely combo of teams in CL

14%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
13%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
13%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
5%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.2%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

25%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
16%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
10%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
6%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
4.7%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
3.9%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
3.7%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
2.7%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
2.6%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.0%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves