EL: Man United, Porto and Roma without wins

We notice that Man United, Porto or Roma win EL in 25% of the simulations, yet they have not won a match in the league phase of EL.

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Tottenham	17	15-6	99.49%	95.6%	80%	94%	64%	41%	25%	13%
2	6	Lazio	16	21-9	99.23%	94%	75%	92%	60%	36%	21%	10%
3	6	Lyon	16	15-9	98.7%	91%	66%	85%	44%	20%	8%	4.2%
4	4	Bilbao	15	16-7	97.6%	88%	61%	86%	53%	31%	17%	8%
5	6	Anderlecht	15	12-7	97.5%	86%	56%	77%	34%	13%	4.8%	2.4%
6	4	Galatasaray	14	15-10	94%	78%	45%	74%	37%	17%	8%	3.8%
7	2	Man United	14	21-17	94%	77%	43%	78%	50%	30%	17%	9%
8	4	Frankfurt	14	15-11	95.7%	78%	42%	73%	37%	17%	7%	3.7%
9	4	Slavia Praha	14	16-13	94%	75%	41%	75%	43%	23%	12%	6%
10	3	Olympiakos	13	14-11	89%	66%	32%	63%	29%	12%	4.9%	2.4%
11	4	Hoffenheim	13	11-13	88%	60%	26%	60%	29%	13%	6%	2.8%
12	4	Ajax	12	14-6	88%	62%	27%	54%	20%	7%	2.1%	1.0%
13	4	Fenerbahce	12	9-5	85%	57%	25%	60%	30%	14%	6%	3.2%
14	1	Porto	12	18-16	83%	55%	22%	66%	43%	27%	17%	8%
15	1	Roma	12	9-7	82%	53%	20%	64%	41%	26%	15%	8%
16	4	Midtjylland	12	16-16	81%	51%	20%	45%	16%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
17	4	Bodoe Glimt	12	11-13	80%	48%	17%	43%	15%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%
18	1	Sociedad	11	15-9	80%	50%	18%	58%	33%	18%	9%	4.7%
19	1	Nice	11	15-12	77%	47%	16%	50%	24%	11%	4.7%	2.3%
20	3	Braga	11	12-14	71%	40%	13%	43%	18%	8%	2.9%	1.4%
21	2	Twente	10	10-12	59%	28%	7%	29%	10%	3.5%	1.1%	< 1%
22	6	Steaua	10	12-15	62%	27%	7%	16%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Alkmaar	10	15-19	59%	27%	7%	27%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
24	3	Rangers	10	10-14	58%	25%	6%	27%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Malmoe	10	12-18	55%	24%	6%	21%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
26	1	St Gillis	9	12-12	53%	24%	6%	30%	13%	5%	2.0%	1.0%
27	2	Viktoria Plzen	9	11-13	50%	21%	5%	25%	9%	3.1%	1.0%	< 1%
28	0	PAOK	9	9-12	47%	17%	3.0%	22%	8%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	M Tel Aviv	8	9-12	37%	13%	2.1%	15%	4.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	Elfsborg	8	7-10	37%	12%	2.0%	12%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Karabakh Agdam	8	10-14	37%	13%	2.1%	15%	4.3%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Dynamo Kyiv	7	9-13	27%	7%	< 1%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	1	Razgrad	6	6-11	16%	3.6%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Ferencvaros	6	6-13	15%	3.4%	< 1%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Besiktas	6	10-19	15%	3.4%	< 1%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	RFS	3	9-19	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	10-14	13	15-11	16	17-6
5%	10	12-12	13	14-13	16	16-10
25%	10	9-13	12	18-15	15	16-9
50%	9	10-10	12	5-4	15	10-7
75%	9	8-11	11	13-8	14	14-8
95%	8	13-15	11	11-11	14	12-11
99%	8	11-16	11	9-13	13	15-11

Europa Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Chelsea	15	17-7	99.94%	98.8%	89%	99.10%	87%	71%	56%	28%
2	3	Fiorentina	13	19-4	99.41%	95%	76%	96.5%	78%	57%	37%	19%
3	0	Betis	12	13-4	98.2%	89%	58%	92%	69%	46%	27%	14%
4	3	Rapid Wien	12	14-7	97.9%	87%	57%	80%	35%	12%	3.0%	1.5%
5	3	Cercle Brugge	12	11-5	96.8%	83%	52%	80%	40%	16%	5%	2.5%
6	3	Heidenheim	12	11-9	95.8%	80%	47%	85%	58%	34%	17%	9%
7	3	Molde	12	13-14	96.0%	80%	47%	78%	39%	16%	5%	2.6%
8	0	Gent	11	13-9	95.1%	77%	40%	81%	49%	26%	11%	6%
9	1	Panathinaikos	11	13-9	96.0%	78%	38%	77%	41%	19%	7%	3.5%
10	3	Legia	11	11-7	95%	76%	40%	71%	31%	10%	2.7%	1.4%
11	3	Guimaraes	11	13-10	94%	73%	39%	77%	43%	21%	8%	4.1%
12	3	Jagiellonia	10	16-8	92%	70%	34%	60%	19%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%
13	3	Omonia	10	10-6	90%	64%	29%	60%	22%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
14	3	Lugano	10	11-10	87%	59%	25%	57%	21%	7%	1.6%	< 1%
15	1	Djurgarden	9	15-11	84%	54%	21%	53%	20%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
16	3	Paphos	9	11-7	86%	54%	19%	51%	17%	4.8%	1.0%	< 1%
17	0	FC Kobenhavn	9	10-9	81%	47%	15%	62%	34%	18%	7%	3.7%
18	3	Hearts	9	12-15	78%	41%	12%	37%	10%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
19	1	LASK	8	14-10	79%	44%	12%	47%	17%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
20	0	Olimpija Ljubljana	8	9-8	72%	37%	10%	36%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
21	1	APOEL	8	8-8	72%	35%	8%	34%	9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	FK Astana	8	5-7	67%	31%	8%	28%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
23	0	Bueyueksehir	7	9-8	64%	28%	6%	40%	17%	7%	2.1%	1.1%
24	3	Noah	7	8-8	63%	26%	5%	18%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	0	StGallen	7	8-10	59%	23%	4.6%	32%	12%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
26	1	Shamrock	7	9-12	56%	19%	2.0%	11%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Celje	6	9-14	38%	11%	1.4%	12%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Mlada Boleslav	6	9-14	38%	12%	2.1%	19%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	Backa Topola	5	3-7	27%	7%	< 1%	8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Borac Banja Luka	5	8-13	30%	8%	1.1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Dinamo Minsk	4	11-15	20%	4.1%	< 1%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Vikingur	4	6-12	20%	4.6%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	HJK Helsinki	4	4-13	13%	2.2%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	The New Saints	3	6-14	10%	1.7%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Larne	3	4-18	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Petrocub	2	6-14	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-7	10	13-8	13	16-7
5%	7	11-7	10	10-7	13	15-9
25%	7	11-13	10	14-15	12	14-4
50%	7	8-12	9	13-10	12	12-7
75%	6	12-12	9	5-4	12	7-7
95%	6	11-16	8	10-7	11	12-9
99%	6	4-19	8	9-9	10	15-9

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	86%	18.67	9.14	26.36
ITA	28%	15.37	7.88	25
POR	27%	15.15	6.4	26.3
ESP	22%	14.91	6.57	24.93
GER	21%	14.98	7.25	23.25
BEL	8%	13.73	6.6	23.6
CYP	4.1%	12.79	5.67	23.83
CZE	1.4%	12	6.3	22.5
GRE	1.0%	11.36	4.63	21.5
FRA	< 1%	11.21	5.07	20.14
TUR	< 1%	10.81	4.9	20
SWE	< 1%	10.49	5.75	20.5
UKR	< 1%	7.43	2.5	23.5
NED	< 1%	9.45	4.17	19.17
NOR	< 1%	9.53	4.88	16.38
DEN	< 1%	8.58	3.75	16
AUT	< 1%	7.81	3.4	17.38
POL	< 1%	8.66	4.25	14.75